$BTC • Current price: 95,448.06 USDT (-0.75%).
• 24-hour highest price: 96,414.49 USDT.
• 24-hour lowest price: 95,209.07 USDT.
• 24-hour trading volume (BTC): 897 million USDT.
(3) News aspect
• Negative news:
• U.S. April non-farm data (May 2): Strong dollar, BTC under pressure.
• OPEC+ supply increase (May 4): May lead to a drop in oil prices and a stronger dollar.
• Concerns about economic recession (Buffett's speech).
• EU privacy coin ban (passed in 2025, effective in 2027): May trigger market panic in the short term. (No actual impact on BTC)
• Positive news:
• Interest rate cut expectations (Buffett's support).
• Global capital flow expansion (Buffett's optimistic view).
Elliott Wave Analysis
(1) 4-hour level
• Current wave: 4th wave adjustment (May 2 97,995.68 USDT to current 95,448.06 USDT), target 94,800-95,500 USDT.
• 5th wave (expected): May rise to 100,000-102,000 USDT after adjustment.
• Analysis: Price nearing adjustment target, MACD convergence and RSI oversold may signal the end of the adjustment.
(2) 1-hour level
• Current sub-wave: 4th wave c wave, target 95,179.57 USDT (Bollinger Band lower track).
• Analysis: Adjustment near the lower track, MACD dead cross tends to converge, supporting a possible rebound.
News aspect and capital flow
• Capital outflow, declining TVL, and intensified bearishness due to EU ban.
• RSI oversold, MACD convergence, and interest rate cut expectations may trigger a rebound.
Short-term forecast
• Trend: Adjust to 95,179.57 USDT, then rebound to 96,328.15-97,000 USDT.
• Support levels: 95,179.57 USDT, 94,800 USDT.
• Resistance levels: 96,328.15 USDT, 97,466.76 USDT.
• Trading suggestions:
• Wait and see, build positions at a pullback to 95,000 USDT, target 96,500 USDT, stop loss 94,500 USDT.
• Breakthrough 96,328.15 USDT to chase long, target 97,500 USDT, stop loss 95,800 USDT.
Risk warning
• Short-term: Capital outflow, stronger dollar, panic triggered by EU ban.
• Mid-term: Dollar trend, regulatory policy uncertainty.#欧盟隐私币禁令 #加密市场反弹 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
