Key point: 96560 determines the short-term bullish or bearish direction
Current major trend is in a 4-hour level pullback, 96560 is the dividing line for bulls and bears, need to focus on two potential trends:
1. Stand firm at 96560 → Pullback ends, bullish
- Confirmation condition: 4-hour closing price continuously breaks through 96560, with moderate volume increase.
- Upward target:
- First resistance level: 97300 (short-term resistance + Fibonacci 38.2%)
- Second resistance level: 97865 (previous high + Bollinger upper band)
- Third resistance level: 98495 (daily strong resistance + integer level)
- Operation suggestion: Light position long after breakout, stop loss at 96200 (3% below), target sequential profit-taking.
2. Losing 96560 → Continued adjustment, bearish
- Confirmation condition: 4-hour closing price breaks below 95800 (previous low), rebound does not exceed 96560.
- Downward target:
- First support level: 95800 (previous low + Fibonacci 50%)
- Second support level: 94865 (high transaction area + lower boundary)
- Third support level: 94110 (daily strong support + integer level)
- Operation suggestion: Light position short after breaking 95800, stop loss at 96800 (3% above), target sequential profit-taking.
Risk Warning
1. Position control: Single position ≤3%, avoid high leverage aggressive operations.
2. Beware of false breakouts: Pay attention to volatility, combined with capital flow (such as on-chain whale movements) to assist judgment.
3. Discipline first: Strictly execute stop loss (critical level ±3%), do not hold positions, do not chase highs or panic sell.
Summary
- Bullish and bearish critical point: 96560 (4-hour closing price as the judgment standard).
- Core strategy: Follow after breakout, observe before breakout, with risk control as a prerequisite.$BTC #比特币走势 
