1. Key positions and trend judgment
1. Core signal for the short-term rebound: 147.5 (4-hour level)
- Stabilization conditions: If the SOL price closes above 147.5 within the 4-hour cycle, it indicates weakened bearish strength, and a 4-hour level rebound may begin.
- Upper resistance level:
- First resistance level: 149 (short-term moving average resistance);
- Second resistance level: 151.3 (previous oscillation low);
- Third resistance level: 153.9 (near the downtrend line).
- Risk of not stabilizing: If continuously pressured below 147.5, it indicates weak rebound at a small level, and the market may continue the downtrend:
- First support level: 145 (psychological support at an integer level);
- Target after dropping below: 143 (Bollinger Band lower track), 140.2 (previous low support area).
2. Technical implications of the nighttime trend
- The nighttime price dropping below the first support level shows weak rebounds and new lows, indicating that bears dominate the short-term rhythm; be cautious of the continuation trend of 'weak rebounds + intermediate declines,' needing confirmation of rebound effectiveness through the 4-hour closing price.
2. Suggested operational strategies
- Bullish scenario:
- After stabilizing at 147.5, aggressive traders can lightly test a long position, targeting 149 and 151.3, with a stop loss set below 147.5 (e.g., 146.5).
- Bearish scenario:
- If the rebound is blocked at 147.5 and drops below 145 again, consider shorting in the short term, targeting 143 and 140.2, with a stop loss set above 146.
- Conservative strategy:
- Wait for a breakout above 147.5 with a strong bullish candle on the 4-hour level or a clear drop below 145 before entering, avoiding participation in weak oscillations.
3. Summary
- Long-short critical point: 147.5 is key to determining whether a 4-hour level rebound can begin; if stabilized, it is expected to stop falling and rebound, otherwise, it will continue to decline.
- Trend characteristics: The current market is in a corrective phase of a downtrend; be cautious of the rebound lure risk. A breakthrough of resistance or a drop below support will clarify the short-term direction.
- Risk warning: SOL's trend is easily influenced by market sentiment and the overall market; attention should be paid to changes in trading volume and the correlation with mainstream coins (like BTC), with strict stop-loss settings in operations.
In summary: SOL needs to observe the breakout situation of 147.5 in the short term; if stabilized, a rebound can be anticipated; if not broken, be wary of further declines, suggesting operations should focus on clear trends.$SOL #SOL走势