Key Point: 96560 determines the short-term bullish-bearish direction.
Currently, the Bitcoin is in a 4-hour level pullback, with 96560 as the bullish-bearish dividing line, need to focus on two possible trends:
1. Stabilizing at 96560 → Pullback Ends, Bullish
- Confirmation Condition: 4-hour closing price continuously breaks above 96560, trading volume moderately increases.
- Upward Target:
- First Resistance Level: 97300 (short-term resistance + Fibonacci 38.2%)
- Second Resistance Level: 97865 (previous high + upper Bollinger band)
- Third Resistance Level: 98495 (daily strong resistance + integer level)
- Operation Suggestion: Try going long with light positions after a breakout, stop loss at 96200 (3% below), target to take profit sequentially.
2. Losing 96560 → Continuing Adjustment, Bearish
- Confirmation Condition: 4-hour closing price falls below 95800 (previous low), rebound does not exceed 96560.
- Downward Target:
- First Support Level: 95800 (previous low + Fibonacci 50%)
- Second Support Level: 94865 (dense trading area + lower boundary)
- Third Support Level: 94110 (daily strong support + integer level)
- Operation Suggestion: Lightly short if it breaks below 95800, stop loss at 96800 (3% above), target to take profit sequentially.
Risk Warning
1. Position Control: Single position ≤ 3%, avoid high leverage aggressive operations.
2. Beware of False Breakouts: Pay attention to volatility, combined with capital flow (e.g., on-chain whale movements) to assist in judgment.
3. Discipline First: Strictly execute stop-loss (key level ±3%), do not hold on to positions, do not chase highs or cut losses.
Summary
- Bullish-Bearish Critical Point: 96560 (the 4-hour closing price is the judgment standard).
- Strategy Core: Follow after a breakout, observe before the breakout, with risk control as the premise.$BTC #比特币走势 
