The price of Bitcoin recorded an increase of over 12% in the last week, reaching $96,500 and surpassing the average purchase price of 'short-term whales' — large investors who acquired Bitcoin in the last six months.
In an interview with BeInCrypto, CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn stated that these whales have regained their breakeven level of $90,890. This means they are now in profit and less likely to sell, which provides more stability to the market.
Short-term Bitcoin whales return to profit
These whales are now in aggregate profit, as BTC exceeds its realized price. Historically, when these participants move into profitability, they tend to pause or reduce selling pressure.
The Realized Price Chart of Short/Long-Term Whales from CryptoQuant shows the orange line (cost basis of short-term whales) rising toward the white market price curve in recent weeks. This confirms that most short-term holders would realize gains if they sold at current levels.
Realized Price Chart of Short/Long-Term Whales. Source: CryptoQuant
On-chain data reinforces the importance. Funding rates in perpetual swaps remain deeply negative, indicating heavy short positions ready for a potential squeeze if purchases continue.
Meanwhile, long-term holders have been rebuilding their accumulation. Additionally, the network's hash rate reached a record of 1.04 ZH/s this month. These metrics indicate that miners and patient investors are confident in sustaining the rally's trajectory.
Seasonal and macro dynamics strengthen the outlook
Seasonal trends often slow summer rallies. Since 2013, Bitcoin has had an average gain of 26% in the second quarter, but the median was only 7.6%. Furthermore, sharp declines, such as the 56.2% drop in the second quarter of 2022, have also been recorded.
The third quarter is usually weaker, with average returns of 6% and a slightly negative median. As May approaches, many prepare for the 'sell in May' effect seen in stocks, where the S&P 500 has returned only 1.8% from May to October since 1950.
Quarterly Returns of Bitcoin Since 2013. Source: Coinglass
Macro factors also matter. Inflation in the U.S. has decreased to 2.4%, and markets now expect Fed rate cuts by late 2025.
A weaker dollar boosts risk assets like Bitcoin. Cryptocurrency spot ETFs had net inflows of $3 billion at the end of April, showing strong institutional demand. Overall, whale profits, healthy on-chain signals, and favorable macro trends support the Bitcoin rally.
However, seasonal headwinds and derivative imbalances remain. Traders should set clear risk limits and monitor funding rates and economic news this summer.
The article 'Short-term Bitcoin whales return to profit, driving the cryptocurrency rally' was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
