Market Expectations
Non-farm Employment Change: The market generally expects an increase of 135,000, with the previous value at 228,000. Some institutions (such as Bank of America) predict a higher value of 165,000.
Unemployment Rate: Expected to remain at 4.2%, unchanged from the previous value.
II. Data Background and Influencing Factors
Economic Environment
U.S. GDP contracted in the first quarter (J.P. Morgan forecast -1.75%), raising concerns about economic recession.
ADP non-farm data significantly below expectations, only 62,000, the lowest since July 2024, intensifying market expectations of a weak job market.
Policy Relevance
Non-farm data will affect expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If the data is below expectations, it may strengthen the possibility of interest rate cuts; conversely, it may delay easing policies.
The potential impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy and trade frictions on the job market is under scrutiny.
Please manage your positions well 🫡
