一直都在回本的路上
OM Holder
High-Frequency Trader
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U.S. Non-farm Employment Data to be Released at 8:30 PM Tonight
Market Expectations
Non-farm Employment Change: The market generally expects an increase of 135,000, with the previous value at 228,000. Some institutions (such as Bank of America) predict a higher value of 165,000.
Unemployment Rate: Expected to remain at 4.2%, unchanged from the previous value.
II. Data Background and Influencing Factors
Economic Environment
U.S. GDP contracted in the first quarter (J.P. Morgan forecast -1.75%), raising concerns about economic recession.
ADP non-farm data significantly below expectations, only 62,000, the lowest since July 2024, intensifying market expectations of a weak job market.
Policy Relevance
Non-farm data will affect expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If the data is below expectations, it may strengthen the possibility of interest rate cuts; conversely, it may delay easing policies.
Non-farm Employment Change: The market generally expects an increase of 135,000, with the previous value at 228,000. Some institutions (such as Bank of America) predict a higher value of 165,000.
Unemployment Rate: Expected to remain at 4.2%, unchanged from the previous value.
II. Data Background and Influencing Factors
Economic Environment
U.S. GDP contracted in the first quarter (J.P. Morgan forecast -1.75%), raising concerns about economic recession.
ADP non-farm data significantly below expectations, only 62,000, the lowest since July 2024, intensifying market expectations of a weak job market.
Policy Relevance
Non-farm data will affect expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If the data is below expectations, it may strengthen the possibility of interest rate cuts; conversely, it may delay easing policies.
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How much have the big orders bought these days? Still thinking it will drop another 90%? In the long run, it will definitely return to 2-3 dollars.
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