Daily Analysis of the Crypto Market (04.17) – Call Me the Late Update King

Summary:

1. The economic issues of the U.S., U.S. stocks < U.S. dollar < U.S. bonds.

2. It can basically be confirmed that there will be a rate cut in June; everyone should review how the market moved before the rate cut last September and think about 805.

3. Being optimistic about the June market does not mean a reversal of the trend; the current logic still points to a bear market.

4. Looking at the balance sheet and overnight RRP accounts shows the lack of liquidity.

5. With the inversion of U.S. bonds turning positive for more than 100 days, each rebound is just to set up for a more exaggerated drop afterward.

6. The natural gas inventory replenishment is nearing completion, waiting for the rise starting in May.

7. The A-share market focuses on biopharmaceuticals, real estate, and high-tech (AI, semiconductors, software development) sectors, continuously investing when the Shanghai Composite is below 3000.

8. From a structural perspective, the probability of 74500 being the bottom of a weekly decline is increasing. However, combined with the macro environment, this weekly decline has not been completed.

9. After hitting the weekly EMA60, a rebound began; not choosing to drop below is not unreasonable, but the period of volatility will be longer.

10. 74500 is either the bottom of a weekly decline or not, corresponding to the method and points of movement.

Operations:

1. Holding short position $BTC , with a take-profit at 62000. Long positions are being processed as limit orders in the 64000-59000 range, pyramid structure build-up, target 82000, with liquidation price controlled below 50000.

2. Short position $ETH $SOL actually had a break-even opportunity a few days ago; if not sold, it’s fine. When the major coin drops to around 81000, close 2/3 of the position, and let the rest follow the previous low. If the major coin indeed rebounds to 92000 after hitting 81000, then add back this 2/3 position.

3. Regarding altcoins, update the coin selection based on the previous analysis, focusing on:

JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK

When the major coin hits 62000, pick 1-2 to double the position gradually, and when it hits 59000, gradually double the remaining coins. Safely, when the major coin hits 64000, purchase the above-mentioned altcoins in spot, and sell when it reaches 82000.