The recent rise in US stocks and Bitcoin is driven by two major factors: first, macro sentiment is stable. After the GDP data was released, everyone felt that the US economy is not that bad, at least for now, there are no signs of recession.
Secondly, the performance during the earnings season has been crucial; Meta and Microsoft's earnings reports were impressive, igniting market sentiment, and investors are very optimistic, increasing their holdings in stocks and crypto assets.
However, market liquidity is still insufficient; before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the market will continue to be led by economic data and policy expectations.
Is the recent rise in Bitcoin a rebound or a real reversal? Let's analyze this briefly.
First, let's talk about the conditions that need to be met for a real reversal:
- Funds continue to flow into the market.
- As Bitcoin rises sharply, Ethereum should also rise significantly.
- Altcoins may rise alongside Ethereum after Bitcoin stabilizes.
- The MEME coins on the SOL chain need to become active, with projects appearing with market caps of 500 million or 1 billion at any moment.
The current situation is:
If the unemployment rate announced tonight is higher than 4.2%, it indicates an economic recession, which may accelerate interest rate cuts, and the market will treat it as a positive (but if interpreted as the economy being too bad, it may also decline)
Next week, Arizona may agree to include Bitcoin in the state reserves, which is also a potential positive.
Bitcoin stabilizing at $97,500, and even challenging $100,000 is possible.
Conversely:
If the unemployment rate is below 4.3%, meeting expectations, it indicates the economy is doing okay, and interest rate cuts won't happen so quickly, but market sentiment should also be okay.
Comparing to the previous market:
When Bitcoin is at $97,000, Ethereum should be above $2,700, and SOL should be above $190.
But even if Bitcoin rises to $100,000, can Ethereum reach $2,500 or $3,000? Can SOL break through $180 or $200?
So what is the conclusion?
It now feels more like a rebound, not a real reversal, because:
Everything is driven by short-term news and sentiment; once sentiment turns negative, it could drop back at any time.
My view: In the short term, it's still a rebound; the big trend has not yet arrived.
What to focus on next is May 7, because two major events are happening that day: the major upgrade of Ethereum and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. Both of these messages will have significant market impact, essentially serving as a barometer for the May market.
If the market intends to continue pushing up, it needs to start gaining momentum before the good news is announced; if it doesn't start attacking now, when the good news really comes, there won't be enough time.
Now mainstream websites predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% on May 7, but on Polymarket, a platform for real-money betting, most of the big bets are on 'no rate cut', with total bets exceeding $30 million, which is a significant signal, indicating that real funds do not believe there will be a loosening in the short term.
Conversely, everyone initially expected good news; once that expectation is unmet, and panic sentiment is released, the market relaxes, and there may be an opportunity for a rebound.
If there really is a rate cut, the market may rally in advance, then start to adjust once the news lands. In this case, it could rise for a few days, then enter a period of volatility or even pullback, before gradually finding a new direction. So regardless of whether there is a rate cut or not, the market has its own 'script'.
Finally, tonight's non-farm payroll data is a key point, as sentiment determines the current price.