Is the recent rise in Bitcoin a rebound or a real reversal?
Let's analyze it briefly.
Firstly, several conditions need to be met for a real reversal: - Continued capital inflow into the market. - When Bitcoin rises sharply, Ethereum must also rise sharply. - Altcoins should rise together with Ethereum after Bitcoin stabilizes. - MEME coins on the SOL chain need to become active, with projects often appearing with market capitalizations of 500 million or 1 billion.
The current situation is: If the unemployment rate announced tonight exceeds 4.2%, it indicates an economic recession, which may accelerate interest rate cuts, and the market will interpret this as positive (but if interpreted as the economy being too poor, it may also drop). Next week, Arizona may agree to include Bitcoin in its state reserves, which is also a potential positive for Bitcoin to stabilize at $97,500, and even challenge $100,000 is possible.
Conversely: If the unemployment rate is below 4.3%, meeting expectations, it indicates the economy is doing okay, and interest rate cuts won't happen so quickly, but market sentiment should still be okay. Compared to previous trends: when Bitcoin was at $97,000, Ethereum should be above $2,700, and SOL should be above $190. But now even if Bitcoin rises to $100,000, can Ethereum reach $2,500 or $3,000? Can SOL break through $180 or $200?
So what is the conclusion? It feels more like a rebound now, not a real reversal,
Because: it is all driven by short-term news and sentiment; once sentiment turns negative, it could drop back at any time.
My view: It’s still a rebound in the short term; the big trend has not yet arrived.
