Bitcoin (BTC) Futures Position Analysis: Short-Term Trade Setup.
Trend Analysis
Short-Term
Bull Catalysts:
Breakout above $97,170 could target $100,000 (psychological resist).
Positive funding rates and institutional ETF inflows
Bear Risks:
Overbought RSI(14) on 4h charts (74.41) and Stochastic %K (93.92) signal pullback risk.
Liquidation clusters at $91,600 and $84,000 may trigger cascading sells if support breaks.
Mid-Term
Bull Case: Sustained close above $100,000 could target $109,354 (2025 ATH).
Bear Case: Failure to hold $91,600 may lead to $84,000 (Fibo 38.2%).
Critical Price Levels
Support Zones
Immediate Supp: $91,600 (bull scenario validation lvl)
Strong Supp: $84,000 (Fibo 38.2% + Coinglass liquidation cluster).
Resist Zones
Near-Term: $97,170 (May 1 high).
Major: $100,000 (psychological barrier + pivot R1).
Trade Setup
Long Position (Bull Breakout)
Entry: $94,500–$95,000 (pullback to 23.6% Fibo level).
Take-Profit:
TP1: $97,170
TP2: $100,000
Stop-Loss: $91,500
Leverage: 3x or 5x
Short Position (Bear Reject)
Entry: $97,000–$97,170
Take-Profit:
TP1: $94,500
TP2: $91,600
Stop-Loss: $98,000
Leverage: 3x or 5x
Indicator Confirmation
Long Trigger:
MACD histogram resurgence above signal line
Volume spike (>$40B 24h) on breakout above $97,170
Short Trigger:
Bear engulfing candle at $97,170
RSI divergence below 70 on 4h chart
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