Anndy Lian
Market wrap: Consumer confidence drops, markets rise, Bitcoin ETF soars
US President Donald Trump’s softened stance on auto tariffs has led to persistent concerns over weakening US economic data. Reports that Trump signed orders to mitigate the impact of his auto tariffs through credits and relief on material levies, combined with hints from his trade team about a potential deal with a foreign trading partner, have bolstered risk sentiment.
This development has provided a temporary reprieve from the intense market volatility that has characterised much of April 2025, driven by fears of escalating trade wars. However, softer-than-expected US economic releases, including a widening trade deficit and declining consumer confidence, underscore the fragility of the current recovery.
As investors digest these mixed signals, major asset classes—from equities to bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies—are reflecting a market caught between hope for de-escalation and apprehension about economic slowdown. With key data releases like the US first-quarter GDP and China’s April manufacturing PMI on the horizon, the coming days promise to be pivotal for global markets.
The US equity markets closed Tuesday’s session with modest gains, reflecting the tentative optimism surrounding Trump’s tariff adjustments. The S&P 500 rose 0.58 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.75 per cent, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.55 per cent.
These gains, while modest, mark a shift from the sharp sell-offs earlier in the month, when Trump’s aggressive tariff announcements sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into correction territory, with declines exceeding 10 per cent from their February highs. The Dow, less exposed to tariff-sensitive tech sectors, has been relatively resilient but still faced significant pressure, dropping nearly 12 per cent since Trump’s inauguration.
The market’s reaction to the tariff relief suggests investors are cautiously pricing in the possibility of negotiated trade deals, particularly after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled openness to discussions with foreign partners. However, the persistence of a 10 per cent baseline tariff on most imports and heightened duties on China (now at 145 per cent) keeps uncertainty alive, tempering the rally’s momentum.
Tuesday’s data releases painted a concerning picture. The US trade deficit widened to US$162.0 billion in March, up US$14.1 billion from February’s US$147.8 billion, reflecting the disruptive impact of tariffs on global trade flows. This widening gap, coupled with retaliatory tariffs from major partners like China (84 per cent on US goods) and the European Union, raises fears of a prolonged trade war that could further erode US export competitiveness.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86.0 in April, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline and hitting the lowest level since January 2021. This persistent erosion of consumer sentiment, driven by tariff-induced price increases and economic uncertainty, signals potential headwinds for consumer spending, a critical driver of US GDP.
Economists at Goldman Sachs have raised their recession probability to 35 per cent, citing tariffs as a significant drag on growth. These weak indicators contrast sharply with the market’s upbeat response to tariff relief, highlighting the disconnect between short-term sentiment and longer-term economic risks.
Fixed-income markets also reflected this cautious mood. The 10-year Treasury yield retreated 4 basis points to 4.17 per cent, and the 2-year yield fell 2 basis points to 3.65 per cent. This pullback follows a volatile period where yields surged to 4.4 per cent amid tariff-driven inflation fears. The decline in yields suggests investors are seeking safety in bonds, driven by concerns over economic slowdown and the potential for foreign governments to sell off Treasury holdings in retaliation for US tariffs.
The US Dollar Index, however, edged up 0.23 per cent to 99.24, supported by relative strength against a basket of currencies despite a broader weakening trend in 2025. The dollar’s resilience may reflect lingering confidence in US economic fundamentals, though its year-to-date decline of over five per cent underscores investor unease about tariff-induced disruptions.
Commodities markets, meanwhile, faced downward pressure. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, tumbled 0.8 per cent to US$3,315 per ounce as signs of easing US-China trade tensions reduced demand for hedges against uncertainty. Despite this dip, gold remains up 19 per cent in 2025, buoyed by earlier tariff-driven volatility that pushed prices above US$3,160 in March. Brent crude slid 2.44 per cent to US$64 per barrel, reflecting dual pressures: investor anticipation of an OPEC+ production increase and fears that tariffs will dampen global fuel demand.
The oil market’s decline, with Brent hitting a nearly four-year low earlier this month, underscores the broader economic concerns weighing energy markets. These commodity movements highlight the market’s sensitivity to policy shifts and macroeconomic trends, with oil particularly vulnerable to global growth expectations.
In Asia, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose 0.4 per cent on Tuesday, and most Asian equity indices opened higher on Wednesday, buoyed by the US market’s gains and hopes of de-escalating trade tensions. However, the region remains on edge, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 10 per cent for the first quarter and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng suffering a 13.2 per cent single-day drop earlier in April, its worst since 1997.
Constrained by Trump’s escalating tariffs, China’s markets have shown muted gains, with Goldman Sachs lowering its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to four per cent from 4.5 per cent due to trade headwinds. The upcoming release of China’s April manufacturing PMI will be closely watched for signs of resilience or further slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
The cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, offered a counterpoint to the broader caution. Bitcoin rose one per cent on Tuesday, approaching US$95,500 before encountering resistance. This uptick follows a volatile period where Bitcoin plunged 10 per cent to below US$78,000 after Trump’s initial tariff announcements. The current momentum, driven by anticipation of Trump’s trade deal rhetoric and his upcoming Michigan rally, suggests Bitcoin is benefiting from its perceived role as a hedge against policy uncertainty.
Posts on X have noted safe-haven flows into Bitcoin alongside gold during peak trade fears. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF set a record with US$970 million in single-day inflows, part of an eight-day buying spree in Bitcoin ETFs that underscores robust institutional demand. However, large redemptions from Fidelity and Ark Invest tempered aggregate deposits to US$591 million, indicating mixed sentiment among investors.
Altcoins outperformed Bitcoin, with Ethereum and Cardano gaining two per centeach, signalling a higher risk appetite among crypto investors. This divergence suggests a shift toward speculative assets, possibly driven by expectations of economic stimulus in response to weakening US labor and consumer data.
Job openings fell to 7.2 million in March, below the 7.5 million forecast, and consumer confidence hit a four-year low, conditions that historically precede Bitcoin rallies. Some analysts project Bitcoin could reach US$140,000 by October 2025 if stimulus measures materialise, though such forecasts hinge on unpredictable policy outcomes.
Looking ahead, the first reading of the US first-quarter GDP and China’s manufacturing PMI will be critical in shaping market direction. A weaker-than-expected GDP could amplify recession fears, potentially triggering further safe-haven flows into bonds and cryptocurrencies.
Conversely, a robust PMI from China could bolster Asian equities and ease concerns about global growth. Trump’s Michigan rally, where he is expected to tout his administration’s first 100 days, will also draw scrutiny for clues on trade policy and Bitcoin alignment, given his cabinet’s recent pro-crypto signals.
In my view, the market’s optimism is fragile, resting on the hope that Trump’s tariff relief and potential trade deals will avert a deeper economic downturn.
The persistent weakness in US economic data and the ongoing trade frictions with China suggest that volatility is far from over. Investors are right to remain cautious, as the interplay of tariffs, inflation, and consumer sentiment could tip the US economy into recession if not carefully managed.
The cryptocurrency market’s resilience, particularly Bitcoin and altcoins, offers a speculative outlet for risk-tolerant investors, but it is not immune to broader economic shocks. I see the coming weeks as a critical juncture, where clarity on Trump’s trade strategy and the trajectory of global growth will determine whether markets can sustain this tentative recovery or succumb to deeper uncertainty.
Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-consumer-confidence-drops-markets-rise-bitcoin-etf-soars-20250430/
The post Market wrap: Consumer confidence drops, markets rise, Bitcoin ETF soars appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.
