Original title: Trump’s First 100 Days: The Impact on Crypto
Original author: Connor Sephton, CryptoNews
Original translation: Felix, PANews
Trump's return to the White House has been 100 days, during which global markets have been turbulent, filled with uncertainty and chaos.
When Trump was successfully re-elected, the crypto market was full of hope. However, despite issuing some important bullish statements for Bitcoin after taking office, the crypto community felt disappointed.
Just before the inauguration, Trump released the official token $TRUMP, causing a frenzy in the market while also sparking considerable controversy. Some critics argue this move presents a clear conflict of interest and could even threaten national security.
$TRUMP has fallen 82% from its all-time high of $75.35 set on January 19. However, $MELANIA performed worse, plummeting nearly 97%.
Source: CoinGecko
After Trump took office, there was much speculation that he would sign a series of executive orders supporting cryptocurrency on his first day, including the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. However, these orders did not materialize. On January 20, Bitcoin briefly soared to a record $109,000 and has not returned to that level since.
Trump has indeed quickly fulfilled some campaign promises made at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference held in Nashville. Ross Ulbricht, founder of the darknet market 'Silk Road', received a full and unconditional pardon. In a photo circulating online, he was seen smiling for the first time after being released from prison after 11 years. Reports say that Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is also lobbying for a pardon, but this has not yet materialized.
Meanwhile, several members of Trump's cabinet who are friendly towards Bitcoin were quickly confirmed by the Senate. This includes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who declared, 'Cryptocurrency is about freedom, and the cryptocurrency economy will last a long time.'
Others are facing intense scrutiny. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick faced severe criticism during the confirmation hearing, but downplayed the issue regarding his company's relationship with the Tether stablecoin.
The White House appointed David Sacks as the first 'czar' for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. Prior to taking office, he sold off his holdings of BTC, ETH, and SOL. This appointment received widespread acclaim, even from Trump's critic, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci.
Additionally, Trump's businesses are increasingly venturing into digital assets, with the Trump Media Technology Group accumulating a massive cryptocurrency reserve and launching a series of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
For Trump, there is a simple rule: always be prepared for the unexpected. As early as March 2, Trump suddenly announced on Truth Social that he intends to create an 'American Crypto Reserve' containing XRP, Solana, and Cardano. Following this news, the prices of these altcoins soared, with some rising as much as 70%. However, the initial post did not mention BTC and ETH, but subsequent statements emphasized that these two flagship digital assets would also 'be at the core of the reserves.'
The news that BTC would be lumped together with other altcoins quickly sparked heated discussions, with experts calling the proposal 'absurd' and 'chaotic'. Concerns were also raised about the feasibility of the plan, fearing it might require Congressional approval to launch, and few details were revealed regarding funding allocation, the source of reserve funds, and when it would take effect.
All of these issues ultimately became irrelevant. Trump made a major turnaround and quickly signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve as originally planned—while also reserving other cryptocurrencies.
Although this marks one of the largest adoption milestones in Bitcoin's history, Bitcoin was heavily sold off as investors digested the news. Why? Because the executive order stated that no new BTC could be purchased for reserves unless it could be done without affecting the budget, except for Bitcoins seized from criminals. This was also bad news for XRP, SOL, and ADA, as the U.S. currently does not hold these tokens.
Bitcoin supporters have generally expected the U.S. to become a significant buyer of Bitcoin—and to achieve Senator Cynthia Lummis's ambitious goal of accumulating one million Bitcoins within five years. However, using taxpayer money to do so would be extremely hypocritical, especially considering Musk's commitment to significantly reduce federal government spending.
Data from Arkham Intelligence shows that the U.S. currently holds about 198,000 Bitcoins in wallets, worth about $18.8 billion. However, as noted by JAN3 CEO Samson Mow, the actual scale of the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves may be much smaller—because 95,000 Bitcoins will eventually be returned to Bitfinex. Nevertheless, Mow is not pessimistic about this; he believes the significance of Trump's policies remains 'huge', as it will encourage other major economies to follow suit.
Shortly after Trump announced the establishment of the Bitcoin reserve, on March 7, the White House held its first cryptocurrency summit, attended by industry giants including Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy and Brian Armstrong of Coinbase. However, the evaluation of the summit was mixed, with some analysts stating, 'This feels more like a political stage than a meaningful policy forum.'
However, investors have a more complicated problem to deal with, as Trump faces accusations of deliberately suppressing the stock market to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 indices have been battered, and the close correlation between the two means a larger sell-off for Bitcoin.
After 'Liberation Day', things worsened further as the President announced comprehensive and punitive tariffs on some of America's closest trading partners, leading to significant increases in the cost of imported goods. With the possibility of a recession rising and the war of words between Washington and Beijing escalating, Bitcoin fell to around $80,000 in early April.
Bitcoin faced the risk of dropping below $75,000, a 30% discount from its all-time high set on inauguration day. However, Trump confirmed a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries while raising tariffs on China back to 145%, temporarily easing the market. Optimism further ignited when smartphones and computers were exempted from these aggressive trade policies. However, the White House's constant flip-flopping has left investors feeling anxious and fatigued, with many now reducing their holdings in U.S. assets in favor of investing in gold.
Today, keeping up with the constant news coming out of Washington is almost impossible. Just as all of this was happening, Trump ramped up his attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell—he posted on Truth Social saying, 'The faster Powell is fired, the better!'
Although presidents generally do not have the power to fire heads of independent federal agencies, a Supreme Court case could change this precedent, allowing Trump to start intervening in the affairs of the Federal Reserve. Critics from various political factions worry this could lead to another market crash, with the S&P 500 index having once been on the verge of a bear market.
One key appointment was slightly delayed, that of Paul Atkins as Chairman of the SEC, chosen to replace the anti-cryptocurrency Gary Gensler. This appointment was finally completed last week, and one of his primary tasks will be to decide whether to approve ETFs tracking altcoins like XRP.
Meanwhile, even as the price of $TRUMP continued to decline, the team behind it came up with a novel way to attract attention. They planned to host an 'exclusive' dinner for the top 220 holders of the token, sparking a hoarding frenzy from now until May 12. Following this news, the value of $TRUMP surged by 64%.
However, some people on crypto Twitter are uneasy about this, believing the dinner is 'a trap meant to sell off and profit more from those who bought in due to FOMO'. One analyst urged those who bought $TRUMP at a high price to sell off as soon as possible.
In the past 100 days, Bitcoin has fallen 12%, while the S&P 500 index has dropped 8.6%. The threat of tariffs remains ever-present. A new CNN poll shows that 59% of Americans believe Trump's policies have worsened the U.S. economy. About 60% believe he has exacerbated the cost of living crisis, with an increasing number of consumers worried that a recession may be imminent.
Meanwhile, expectations for Bitcoin reaching new highs this year are rapidly fading. On the Polymarket platform, only 67% believe Bitcoin can break $110,000 by the end of 2025, while the probabilities for breaking $120,000, $130,000, and $150,000 have dropped to 54%, 40%, and 30%, respectively. Earlier this year, these targets were seen as relatively conservative expectations, indicating how quickly the situation can change.
Trump's political unpredictability makes it nearly impossible to predict what will happen next week, let alone next month or next year. This complicates forecasts for Bitcoin's future trajectory. For those bold and confident in their price predictions, caution is advised.
A lot has changed in the past 100 days, but there are still 1,361 days to go.
