📊 The "Year-on-Year Realized Price" of short-term Bitcoin holders is only 58%. What does this mean?
Historical data shows that during the peak of the last bull market, this indicator soared to 144%~165%, corresponding to BTC reaching $70,000 and $100,000 respectively🔥
Now? Only 58%. To replicate the high point, it needs to rise by 82 percentage points, which means the realized price would need to reach 140%. Calculating this, the theoretical high point for BTC could be around $171,000 💰
📈 This indicates:
1️⃣ The current market is far from reaching the peak FOMO stage
2️⃣ There is still significant upward potential, but it also means the market is still "building momentum"
3️⃣ Once it enters the profit-taking zone, there's a high probability of seeing continuous selling pressure
🔍 Although no model can completely predict the future, data can provide a sense of direction. History does not simply repeat itself, but it always rhymes.
📌 Summary: The market is not overheated yet, there is still plenty of room in the profit zone, but if there is a significant surge that breaks through the model’s high value, one should be wary of periodic corrections. 🌪️
Respond rationally and go with the trend.
