After the release tonight (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, GDP), key signals for Bitcoin's recent consolidation:
• Data below expectations: Economic concerns may raise expectations for a Fed rate cut, potentially driving up crypto assets due to easing expectations and demand for safe-haven assets.
• Data above expectations: Stronger economy may reinforce Fed tightening expectations, increasing the appeal of dollar assets, putting crypto markets under pressure from capital outflows and price corrections.
• Data in line with expectations: Market reaction may be subdued, crypto assets could continue to consolidate while waiting for Friday's non-farm payroll report or technical signal for direction.
Youmi believes there are two scenarios for tonight's market:
1. If the price of Litecoin rises sharply, it may first break above around 965, then peak and pull back, continuing to grind within the current consolidation range. After that, it will depend on the distribution of new large positions before Friday to determine if the bottom has truly been reached.
2. If the market reacts negatively after the data release, the price may pull back down, but given the current stable consolidation range, the extent of the pullback is not expected to be significant. Just watch the strong support at the bottom around 915.
In summary, a true trend reversal is not expected at this time; tonight's news is merely a prelude to Friday's arrival and preparation for future signals. A real turning point has yet to be determined, and due to holiday factors, market activity is limited. Therefore, Youmi suggests maintaining light positions for short-term trading as the best approach.
