This week, the market will welcome a large amount of economic data, which is likely to fall far short of expectations, exacerbating market volatility caused by tariffs over the past few weeks.
Schedule for U.S. economic data release from Wednesday to Friday this week:
• Wednesday: Preliminary Q1 GDP data, April ADP private sector employment report, March PCE inflation report
• Thursday: Final manufacturing PMI data, April ISM manufacturing PMI data
• Friday: April non-farm payroll report
Economist Adams pointed out that U.S. economic data this week will be below expectations and will be influenced by concerns of businesses and consumers regarding the economic trajectory.
He stated that if future data worsens, forecasters will need to adjust economic outlooks; current market volatility may intensify, with the key being whether economic deterioration will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Adams believes that a policy shift could drive economic acceleration in 2025, but if tariffs remain, corporate spending and hiring may slow significantly this year.
Regarding Trump's extreme tariff remarks from previous weeks, they are largely a negotiation strategy, superficially using public opinion to guide the market and the public regarding tariff implementation, rather than being the final destination for tariff rates.
The first hundred days of Trump's second term:
On Monday, Trump posted on “Truth Social,” accusing The New York Times, The Washington Post, ABC News, and Fox News of recent polling inaccuracies, calling these media outlets despicable criminals.
He claimed that his winning vote count far exceeded polling predictions, that the media continued to cheat and lie even after apologizing, and demanded an investigation into media and Fox News pollster election fraud issues. Meanwhile, Fox News found that, aside from border security, voters were dissatisfied with Trump on most issues.
The market is currently in a relatively stable wide fluctuation range, oscillating between 920-960, with the large pancake forming a dense chip area around 950, where support and resistance overlap, and competition is intense. This price range has concentrated a large amount of trading, showing a clear intention of main force to protect the market. If the oscillating range falls below support, there is a risk of a rapid pullback.
The tariff war conflict and doubts about economic recession persist, and the most optimistic interest rate cut is still after January. Market discrepancies continue to ferment, making short-term fluctuations inevitable.