Beware of Black Swans! BTC may face two extreme trends on May 5th
👉 Most Likely Outcome
The Trump administration is inclined to promote BTC reserves, but the process is slow—The May 5th report may lean towards optimism, but specific implementation will still take months
👉 Background of Key Events
March 7th: Trump signs an executive order requiring an audit of the 200,000 BTC (worth approximately $17 billion) held by the U.S. government
May 5th: The Treasury Department needs to submit a plan for the implementation of the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' (including custody, legislative needs, etc.)
Key Question: Will the U.S. really include BTC as a national reserve asset?
👉 Three Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Full Support (Bull Market Nuclear Option)
The Treasury Department clearly supports BTC reserves and proposes legislation for long-term holding
Custody plan announced (possibly managed by institutions like Coinbase, Fidelity, etc.)
Market Reaction: BTC surges over 10% in a single day, altcoins follow suit
Scenario 2: Ambiguity (Short-Term Benefits Exhausted)
The report only suggests 'further study,' with no substantial action
Custody issues postponed, requiring Congressional legislative support
Market Reaction: Rises then falls, volatility increases
Scenario 3: Encounter Resistance (Negative Surprise)
The Treasury's report points to legal/regulatory obstacles, delaying the plan
Democrats or SEC pressure, questioning the legitimacy of BTC reserves
Market Reaction: BTC pulls back to the $85,000 - $90,000 range
👉 Three Major Signals of Institutional Pre-positioning
Grayscale GBTC outflow ends, BlackRock IBIT continues to accumulate
Bitcoin futures premium rises, big funds bet on May volatility
Stablecoin reserves exceed $150 billion, ready to buy the dip at any time
👉 Reference Methods
Short Term (Before May 5th):
Avoid high leverage to prevent sharp fluctuations after the report is released
Focus on key BTC levels: Support at $90,000, resistance at $100,000
Long Term:
If strategic reserves are confirmed, a pullback is an opportunity to increase holdings
Focus on BTC, compliant stablecoins, and RWA sectors.
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