👉The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have turned dovish again! Economists: twice this year, but have to wait until the second half
1. "Economic slowdown ≠ recession"?
Melanie Baker from Royal Asset Management in London insists that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates twice in 2025, and not until the second half at the earliest.
Reasons:
Weak economic data but not a collapse (GDP growth slowing, but the job market remains relatively strong)
The illusion of loosening Trump’s tariff policy (suspending some tariffs, but the essence of the trade war remains unchanged)
Market pressure forcing policy adjustments (Wall Street pushing the Federal Reserve, but Powell is still holding firm)
2. Why is the interest rate cut scenario being delayed?
The specter of inflation has not dissipated: core PCE is still above 3%, and the Federal Reserve does not dare to act lightly
Political games in an election year: Trump wants low rates to stimulate the economy, but the Federal Reserve does not want to take the blame
Global recession risks: Weak European economy + declining Chinese demand, making it hard for the U.S. to stay immune
3. Market reaction
U.S. stocks: Betting on a rate cut in September, but if delayed, could lead to a sharp collapse
Bitcoin: Liquidity expectations support prices, but if the Federal Reserve continues a hawkish stance, the risk of correction increases
U.S. Dollar: If the rate cut is delayed, the dollar may strengthen again, suppressing gold and non-U.S. currencies
——Don't take economists' words as gospel; the market will ultimately force the Federal Reserve to comply)
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