Is #空投发现指南 starting to release news again? Let's analyze briefly: Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to keep the long-term U.S. Treasury yield below 4.5%, but the Federal Reserve Chairman completely ignores Trump. Trump is now continuing to cut taxes to fulfill his election promises, while casually waiting for the government to run out of money and shut down, making the situation escalate further.

Essentially, short-term debt is maturing soon, and the Federal Reserve has to either cut interest rates or expand its balance sheet; otherwise, the government will shut down. It happened once in 2020, and the Federal Reserve later similarly expanded its balance sheet to solve the problem. However, this time the situation is different from the last time; the last time was due to a pandemic. Although expanding the balance sheet solved the issue, it resulted in a double hit on both debt and stocks. This time the situation is worse, compounded by the decoupling of China and the U.S. Continuing to cut interest rates or expand the balance sheet could further exacerbate the skyrocketing CPI. Let's see how it plays out.