Although the spot price of #BTC rebounded by 12% on a weekly basis, the derivatives market has released warning signals. According to Coinank data, the central funding rate of contracts has dropped to -0.023%, forming the most significant short premium structure in nearly six months. The gap between contract prices and spot prices has widened to 1.2%, indicating that professional traders are using derivatives to establish hedging protection. The open positions of perpetual contracts have climbed to 218,000 BTC, expanding 15.6% from the quarterly low, marking the largest single-week leverage exposure increase since February 2024.

We believe that this round of divergence between spot and futures exposes three layers of risk logic: the expansion of leverage exposure and price rebound creates an 'asymmetrical risk exposure'; when price fluctuations exceed 3%, it may trigger a series of liquidations worth $3.5 billion; additionally, the continued negative funding rate indicates the accumulation of 'short squeeze' risk, with the current concentration of short positions reaching 92% of CME historical percentiles; furthermore, the surge in Delta hedging demand from market makers has led to liquidity mismatches in the spot market, with bid-ask spreads widening to a three-month peak.

For the cryptocurrency market, this structural pressure may delay the momentum to break through key resistance levels while creating cross-exchange arbitrage opportunities, but caution is needed regarding liquidity spirals triggered by black swan events in a high-leverage environment. Historical data shows that the probability of a 58% increase in the volatility center within 30 days after similar spot-futures divergence cycles is as high as 79%, and the current market is entering a high-sensitivity fragile period.