The little horse believes that the remaining time before the interest rate cut in June will fluctuate widely in the 80,000 to 100,000 range. After the interest rate cut in June, it will break through the previous high to around 120,000. There will be a significant correction in May, very likely dropping to 90,000 or even below 85,000; this will be the last opportunity to bottom out. After the correction, it will quickly rise to start a big bull market trend, reaching about 150,000 in July 2025, and then begin to retrace down to the 100,000 range in August, consolidating until September begins the last round of increase, peaking around 200,000 in October, marking the end of the entire bull market cycle. I believe that due to U.S. policy reasons, the probability of the next cycle's bull market falling below 50,000 is very low.
The ETH trend in this cycle is too weak. I hold some Ethereum and did not expect it to lag behind BTC. After the interest rate cut, ETH's upcoming trend will be similar to BTC, peaking a few days later than Bitcoin, around 8,000 in October 2025, with overall trends linked to Bitcoin.
Strong altcoins will not break below the March correction level and will continuously break upwards, while weak altcoins will still hit new lows during BTC corrections. Altcoins to pay more attention to include: AI, meme, L1, RWA. These sectors' altcoins are likely to be the main objects of speculation.
In September 2025, if Bitcoin shows mid-term peak signals, apart from BTC, I will liquidate all altcoins including ETH and convert them all to Bitcoin, or a small portion to buy strong coins that correlate with BTC and specific altcoin hotspots. I advise friends to sell and cash out half, leaving the other half to position for the next trend.
Current Hotspot
1. Meme Coin Rebound: $Trump leads the way, with $pengu $bonk $turbo $pnut following.
2. AI Sector Rebound: $ai16z $aixbt and other oversold assets rebound, with weekly gains covering three months of losses.
3. Solana Chain Hotspot: $house (real estate hedge project) FDV skyrocketed to 55M+. BONK's new platform #lestbonk FDV fell from 30M to 10M, caution against short-term FOMO risk.
4. Growth of Stablecoins: USDT (14.7 billion), USDC (62 billion) market cap continues to rise, indicating capital inflow.
CEX Operations: $alpaca uses a contract rate of -2% settlement to drive spot prices, creating a short squeeze.
Focus on the AI sector - a bigger market is still ahead!
In recent market volatility, the rhythm of major funds' operations is very evident. Initially, a rapid rise through the GameFi sector attracted retail investors, creating a superficial hotspot. However, the true focus of capital layout is not on GameFi. The next day, the market quickly shifted its focus to AI and Meme sectors, especially Meme assets like BONK, WIF, BOME, which saw astonishing gains, triggering a larger range of emotional FOMO. The AI concept then stabilized and rose for several consecutive days, becoming the real direction of major funds' efforts.
The major players employed a method of 'switching sectors every day': DeFi, L1, L2, GameFi, and even observing sector rotations. This rapid rotation both conceals true intentions and indicates that the chips have not been successfully cleared, and the market has not yet experienced sufficient FOMO.
What is the true intention behind this series of operations? I believe it is not to induce a short squeeze, but to provide cover and build momentum for the next wave of main surges. Based on this judgment, I chose to lay low in the AI sector in advance. For the major players to smoothly offload their positions, the overall market sentiment must be highly greedy, with a large influx of retail investors; otherwise, their chips cannot be realized, and a hard crash would inevitably occur. Therefore, once the main players choose to strongly lift prices and market sentiment is completely ignited, that will be the best stage for realizing segment profits.
For example, many people question the large-scale unlocking of WLD every day, worrying about continuous selling pressure. But in fact, it is precisely because of the unlocking pressure that the major players must push up prices to attract market buying to successfully digest these unlocked amounts. If prices do not go up, the unlocked chips cannot be smoothly realized, which needs to be understood with a major player’s mindset.
Current Target: AI Sector: WLD, AIXBT, Virtual, IO, TAO.