Bitcoin’s 2024 halving has led to its worst post-halving price performance on record, sharply deviating from historical patterns and shaking global market sentiment. Instead of fueling a strong rally like previous cycles, Bitcoin's price action has remained muted, creating major challenges for both institutional and retail investors.
Analysts point to critical shifts: ETF holdings, government sales, and regulatory uncertainties are now significant forces impacting Bitcoin's market behavior. Institutions are reevaluating their strategies as the typical halving-driven surges seen in 2012 and 2020 have not materialized this time.
Despite the short-term weakness, Ark Invest remains cautiously optimistic, suggesting Bitcoin’s broader four-year cycle may still support a rebound over the next 6 to 12 months. However, experts warn that supply-demand imbalances and regulatory developments will be key in shaping Bitcoin’s future trajectory.