The current cryptocurrency market is essentially a game of 'emotion and liquidity.' Unlike the era of zero interest rates and excessive monetary easing in 2021, the world is now in a macro tightening cycle of 4.5% high interest rates and balance sheet reduction. What the market lacks is not stories, but incremental funds in real money.
In this context, fantasizing about a comprehensive bull market reversal is unrealistic; understanding the rhythm of emotional rotation is key.
Why could it rise at the end of last year, but is now struggling to break through?
The rebound in November-December last year was essentially an 'event-driven market': the Federal Reserve's first release of rate cut expectations, the kickoff of the U.S. election cycle, combined with the market's bets on easing, led to a short-term influx of funds.
However, the current environment has changed: the heat of the election has cooled, the rate cut process has paused, and the market is caught in a 'macro data dependency syndrome'—economic indicators such as CPI, non-farm payrolls, GDP, as well as Trump's policy statements and geopolitical events have become the switches that influence emotions.
The recent underlying logic of the market: emotional impulses determine short-term fluctuations.
Recently, BTC rebounded from 90,000 to above 95,000, with the direct catalyst being tariff easing and Trump's statement not to fire Powell, stimulating positive emotions. But when the heat of the events fades, prices quickly retract.
This validates a rule: in the absence of sustained funding support, any positive news can only create wave opportunities.
The weekend has become a 'black swan ambush zone': historical experience shows that major policy announcements often occur during weekends when liquidity is thin (as Trump has frequently released policy signals over the weekend), leading to severe fluctuations at Monday's opening. This Friday, U.S. stock market sentiment was stable; if there are no unexpected events over the weekend, the market may maintain a fluctuating upward trend, but one must be wary of sudden changes during quiet periods.
