In the early hours of Tuesday, there will be a third reading of a Bitcoin state strategic reserve in Arizona, which may still require a vote. If this passes, it will be sent to the governor for signing, making Arizona the first state in the U.S. to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, which would be seen positively in terms of sentiment. On Wednesday, the PCE will be released, an inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is very concerned about. In March, the U.S. raised some tariffs, driving up commodity prices, so this PCE may see a significant increase.

If the PCE data jumps too sharply, market sentiment may quickly turn negative. Tonight, as the U.S. market opens, major players in Bitcoin will be back, with over 3 billion net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs last week. Over the weekend, MicroStrategy released investment tracking charts again, suggesting a return to aggressive buying mode. Recently, many reports indicate that part of the revenue from tariffs will be used to accumulate Bitcoin, and this amount of funding is not insignificant.

It is clear that Bitcoin has entered a weekly level adjustment, or rather, the adjustment is already more than halfway through. Since it is a weekly level adjustment, it is basically impossible to see a bottom reversal and new highs without a rate cut. I think it would be good if it can stabilize around 90,000 in May.

Given that the time and depth of this adjustment are much more severe than initially expected, if the bull market continues, it is likely that it will not end in a wave in June or July, but rather extend to September or October. However, I don't think it will continue until the end of the year to form a double top. We will have to see how it goes; in any case, during the later stages of the bull market, reduce positions gradually and take profits when you can. Try not to re-enter positions that you've already exited.