Bitcoin (BTC) faced a pullback after reaching a high of $94,600 on Wednesday, as market sentiment gradually stabilized, especially after Trump expanded tariffs, and trade negotiations between China and the U.S. are ongoing. The S&P 500 index rose by 1.67%, and if it continues to rise, it may confirm a W-shaped reversal pattern. In the short term, the upward trend of Bitcoin has not been broken, and the support level of $91,300 remains valid. If a bull market forms, the price has the potential to rise to $115,000.
Is Bitcoin truly rebounding or reversing?
Many brothers privately messaged Orange asking about the current bullish trend of Bitcoin, is it a rebound or a reversal?
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin is still in a rebound phase and has not truly emerged from a reversal trend. Firstly, the tariff war initiated by Trump carries a high degree of uncertainty. Miran's paper provides us with rational grounds, but this great power competition is highly uncertain. The Bitcoin market is closely tied to news, but the fundamentals surrounding fears of a U.S. economic recession have not changed.
According to the strategies outlined in the paper, in addition to the tariff war and forcing other countries to the negotiating table, it is also necessary for other countries to allow their currencies to appreciate, which may require the use of drastic measures, and the possibility of failure is also very high. For example, the U.S. recently imposed a 145% tariff on China, but the yuan did not appreciate as a result; instead, it depreciated significantly, and U.S. government bonds faced sell-offs, prompting Trump to implement some temporary measures.
In summary, for Bitcoin to completely reverse, it must wait for the cycle of U.S. economic recession fears to end and for the tariff war to truly reflect in U.S. economic data. For example, in April, we need to pay more attention to the release of U.S. GDP data. Ultimately, as the saying goes, with unchanged fundamentals, a reversal is hard to come by.
The Federal Reserve suddenly "loosens restrictions"; will the crypto world change?
Let’s take a look at the major news, the Federal Reserve has just abolished the stringent regulatory policies of 2022, and banks can now operate cryptocurrency and U.S. dollar stablecoin businesses more freely. Do you remember those regulatory letters that made banks jittery last year? All null and void! The Federal Reserve now states: "We will continue to regulate crypto business, but no longer with special targeting."
Excitingly, news from Washington suggests that the legendary (21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act) (abbreviated as FIT21) may debut at the end of April! This is the first comprehensive legislation regulating digital assets in U.S. history, which received bipartisan support when it passed the House last May. The most remarkable aspect of the bill is:
1. Clearly distinguish between security tokens (regulated by the SEC) and commodity tokens (regulated by the CFTC).
2. If DePIN projects are recognized as digital goods, they can develop freely.
3. Projects can self-certify decentralization, and if the SEC wants to oppose it? They must act within 60 days!
Finally, I shared a few sectors to pay attention to, each with two recommended altcoins, all of which are tokens with contracts on Binance, and are selected coins, too many to buy all at once.
New public chains: SUI, APT
Modular: SAGA, DYM
AI sector: TAO, VIRTUAL
MEME sector: PEPE, NEIRO
ETH ecosystem: ENA, PENDLE, DEFI, AAVE, CRV
BTC ecosystem: BABY, SOLV
SOL ecosystem: JTO, TRUMP
RWA sector: ONDO, RIO
Cross-chain: W, SYN
Chain games: BIGTIME
Finally, don't forget to follow along, let's achieve financial freedom together in this bull market, alright!
