Today marks the fourth day of the rise; after BTC and mainstream coins have increased, some neglected junk coins have started to recover, like BSV rising 40% in 24 hours; ETHW rising 34% in 24 hours. This rotation pattern of increases has not changed from the past; once all sectors have rotated, the momentum for this rise will soon exhaust.
Today's Greed and Fear Index is 61, indicating a state of greed. This shows that the recent rise has reignited everyone's enthusiasm and optimism.
Now, the general direction is betting on the 57 Ethereum upgrade and predicting a rate cut in June. Currently, major bloggers across the internet are unanimously bearish, which is a problem. The current key points are:
Meme coin sector rebounds
Led by $TRUMP, driving up $PENGU, $BONK, $TURBO, $PNUT, and others in a correlated rise.
AI sector rebounds
Representative cryptocurrencies such as $AI16Z, $AIXBT, have seen a rebound from oversold levels, with weekly gains largely covering the declines since March.
Hot projects on the Solana chain are active
For example, the $HOUSE (real estate hedge project) FDV surged to over 55M; the new platform $LESTBONK had its FDV drop from 30M to 10M, and short-term FOMO risks should be monitored.
Significant growth in stablecoins
The market capitalization of USDT and USDC continues to rise, reaching $14.7 billion and $62 billion respectively, indicating that funds are continuously flowing into the market.
CEX market operation dynamics
For example, the $ALPACA project uses contracts with negative fees to pump spot prices, creating a short squeeze, showing that capital competition within exchanges remains fierce.
Macroeconomic event outlook
The PCE inflation data to be released next Wednesday is extremely critical. The market generally expects the PCE annual rate to drop sharply from the previous value by 0.3% to 2.2%, with core PCE also expected to decrease by 0.2% to 2.6%. If the data meets expectations, it would indicate a phased victory in the U.S. inflation issue, greatly increasing the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
It is particularly noteworthy that the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut is usually an important signal for a full bull market to begin. Although part of the recent decline in inflation is due to tariff recession, the outcome is favorable for the market and should be seen as a blessing in disguise.
Finally, we must discuss two painful truths about the crypto world!
Recently, when people in the circle said 'don't just hold on to spot' and 'this wave of altcoins will only rise 2-3 times at most', they were met with severe backlash! But the truth is:
The bull market dividends are diminishing; Bitcoin has seen each round of increases narrow from 2017 to now.
Altcoins are even more evident; the myth of hundredfold returns has become a thing of the past, with rare occasions of tenfold gains, and most consider a two to threefold increase as good.
Newbies, stop fantasizing about getting rich overnight. A bull market isn't about making money with your eyes closed; in fact, it's easier to buy at high positions!
Those who shout 'perpetual bull market' at the peak of a bull market ultimately become the chives!
Recognize reality, operate rationally, and don't wait until you suffer heavy losses to wake up!
Finally, everyone, don't forget to follow us! Let's achieve financial freedom together in this bull market, okay?
