It is expected that Bitcoin will maintain a wide fluctuation between $80,000 and $100,000 before the interest rate cut in June, with a potential deep correction below $85,000 in May, forming the last buying opportunity. After the interest rate cut, it will break through the previous high, initiating a bull market that will last until July 2025 (target $150,000), followed by a retracement to the $100,000 range in August. In September, the final round of increases will begin, with the peak expected in October. Supported by U.S. policies, the likelihood of the next bear market dropping below $50,000 is low.
Ethereum has performed weakly in this cycle; after the interest rate cut, it will move in conjunction with Bitcoin but with a lag in growth, expected to peak in October 2025.
Altcoins are showing divergence: strong sectors such as AI, Meme, L1, and RWA are expected to break previous highs, while weak coins may hit new lows following BTC's correction. It is recommended to liquidate ETH and altcoins for Bitcoin when a peak signal appears in September 2025, retaining 50% cash for the next cycle layout. Current focus should be on monitoring the extent of the May correction and the breakout momentum after the interest rate cut, to seize sector rotation opportunities.
