Recent Possible Situations:
First, let's talk about Bitcoin. There is a possibility, though relatively small, that Bitcoin could directly enter a large-scale upward trend now. However, even if this happens, the highest height it can reach is probably not particularly high. Why? Well, you see, its accumulation of chips is not quite enough, and the adjustment period is short, just like a person running who hasn't warmed up properly, lacking energy. Moreover, the current situation in the US stock market is not very good; it's somewhat in a limbo state, unable to create an environment where everyone is willing to take risks (risk-on), so it can't provide strong support for Bitcoin's large-scale rise.
Another possibility is relatively more reliable. If Bitcoin enters a right-side consolidation phase and then makes a second bottom test, but the price can stabilize and does not break below the 83,000 level, it may accumulate a particularly strong upward momentum, and who knows, it might rise high and far.
From a timeline perspective, at the beginning of May, the tariff issue might come up again, coupled with the earnings season in the US stock market, where many companies will lower their future earnings expectations (forward EPS). This would likely result in a drop in the US stock market. If Bitcoin drops along with the US stock market, around 85,000, that could be a good opportunity for a buyback. However, this comes with a prerequisite: Bitcoin really needs to drop along with the US stock market.
As we slowly move into June and July, Trump will start implementing the second phase of the "deregulation + domestic tax cuts" policy. Once this policy is rolled out, in the third quarter, those risk assets priced in dollars may show a trend of strengthening. This would be a significant positive for Bitcoin, likely propelling it into a major upward trend.
