Amin's pancake prediction sharing
1. The core factors driving this increase
1. Technical breakthroughs and institutional fund inflows
Bitcoin recently broke through the $93,000 resistance level, and technical indicators show strong upward momentum. If it holds above $93,000, the next target may point to $105,000 (Fibonacci extension level).
Institutions continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, with MicroStrategy recently adding $550 million in BTC, raising the holding cost to $78,000, forming support. Additionally, the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds is significant, with record daily inflows, driving supply-demand tension.
2. Macroeconomic liquidity easing and favorable policies
- Expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy towards easing are rising, with the market increasing the probability of a rate cut in June to 58%. If a rate cut materializes, a weaker dollar will directly benefit Bitcoin prices.
- Global M2 money supply growth (year-on-year growth rate of 8.3%) shows that liquidity expansion historically leads Bitcoin prices by about 90 days, which may release upward momentum in the next month.
3. Halving cycle and market sentiment
The second year after the Bitcoin halving usually welcomes a bull market, and historical data shows a significant price increase (such as in 2017 and 2021). Amin predicts that the peak of this cycle may be reached in mid to late May 2025.
Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with the proportion of long-term holders increasing to 63%, and exchange balances dropping to low levels, indicating an enhanced 'lock-up effect' and reduced selling pressure.
2. Potential correction risks and challenges
1. Overbought technicals and short-term selling pressure
The daily RSI of Bitcoin is approaching the overbought range. If the price stagnates with increased volume in the $93,000-$96,000 range, it may trigger a technical correction to the $88,000 support level.
Historical resistance levels (such as $95,000-$100,000) may trigger profit-taking sell-offs, exacerbating volatility.
2. Policy and geopolitical uncertainty
Variability in U.S. regulatory policies (such as SEC intervention in ETF applications) or escalated geopolitical conflicts (such as the situation in the Middle East) may suppress market sentiment.
If the tariff policies of the Trump administration trigger inflationary pressures, they may delay the Fed's rate-cutting pace, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin.
3. Market liquidity risk
A decline in trading volume during holidays may amplify price fluctuations and increase the risk of flash crashes.
3. Comprehensive predictions and operational suggestions
Optimistic scenario: If it breaks through $93,000 and holds, coupled with a Fed rate cut, Bitcoin could hit $105,000, or even temporarily reach $125,000-$135,000.
Neutral scenario: Fluctuates in the $88,000-$105,000 range, dominated by technicals and policy games.
Pessimistic scenario: If it breaks below the $88,000 support, it may retract to the $78,000-$85,000 zone, and attention should be paid to black swan events or tightening regulations.
Immature suggestion:
1. Short-term traders: Focus on the situation of breaking the resistance at $93,000, can accumulate positions on dips; set stop-loss below $88,000 by 5%-10%.
2. Long-term holders: Accumulate positions in batches on dips, focusing on ETF fund inflows and Federal Reserve policy trends.
3. Risk control: Diversify investments to cope with volatility or follow Amin's pace.
In summary
The probability of Bitcoin rising in the next month is high, driven primarily by liquidity easing, halving cycles, and institutional accumulation, but technical corrections and policy risks should be monitored. It is recommended to dynamically adjust strategies based on real-time data, with a focus on Amin's real-time sharing.#加密货币总市值重回3万亿 #加密市场反弹
