阿明趋势论
V经验BTC3810
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The weekend market is not very active, but there are still profits to be made. Stick to the old strategy of buying on dips. Start entering around 94,000, take profits of 800-1500 points. This can be done in multiple stages, with staggered profit-taking, and additional positions can be added if necessary. #币安Alpha上新 #币安Alpha上新
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Not bad
#加密市场反弹 #BTC走势分析 Bitcoin has now started to pull back from its high. Is this pullback a normal adjustment or has the market completely ended? Yesterday, Bitcoin reached a peak of 94,724 points. The viewpoint I proposed last Saturday about 95,000 has now been fully realized by the market. Today, let's specifically discuss the technical viewpoint of Bitcoin in the medium term and the two decisive factors influencing its medium-term trend, to uncover the shocking secrets of Bitcoin's future movement. First, let’s look at the technical aspects of the candlestick chart. This is the weekly chart. The upward trend of Bitcoin has not been completely destroyed by the continuous decline of the US stock market; it still remains above the upward trend line. From the current daily chart, Bitcoin has broken through the constraints of the downward channel and is being hindered by previous resistance levels. That’s why we proposed earlier that this wave should reach the 95,000 area, because of this neckline resistance level. Today, encountering resistance and pulling back here is actually quite normal from a technical standpoint. Through the technical analysis of the two levels just discussed, we can arrive at a very simple yet correct conclusion: the current medium-term trend of Bitcoin is still bullish. Therefore, today's adjustment is definitely a short-term adjustment. The most critical question now is where will the adjustment end? Will it adjust for one day or continue adjusting? This question is actually not easy to answer. Currently, although there is pressure above, there is indeed very strong support below, specifically between 87,000 and 88,000. The current strategy for trading with the trend should be noted; it is definitely not about shorting to make a small profit, but rather seeking opportunities at support levels. Keep trying to go long and make significant profits in the medium term because, as we analyzed earlier, the current medium-term trend of Bitcoin is still bullish. Although the adjustments in the past few months have been very severe, after the recent weeks of rallying, the medium-term bottom is now clear. Continuously seeking opportunities to go long is the most correct way to trade with the trend. Wishing everyone good luck tonight.
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I said to give this reward to me? Can anyone present give me some face #BNBChainMeme热潮 #加密市场反弹
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Why is Bitcoin surging?
Amin's pancake prediction sharing
1. The core factors driving this increase
1. Technical breakthroughs and institutional fund inflows
Bitcoin recently broke through the $93,000 resistance level, and technical indicators show strong upward momentum. If it holds above $93,000, the next target may point to $105,000 (Fibonacci extension level).
Institutions continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, with MicroStrategy recently adding $550 million in BTC, raising the holding cost to $78,000, forming support. Additionally, the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds is significant, with record daily inflows, driving supply-demand tension.
1. The core factors driving this increase
1. Technical breakthroughs and institutional fund inflows
Bitcoin recently broke through the $93,000 resistance level, and technical indicators show strong upward momentum. If it holds above $93,000, the next target may point to $105,000 (Fibonacci extension level).
Institutions continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, with MicroStrategy recently adding $550 million in BTC, raising the holding cost to $78,000, forming support. Additionally, the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds is significant, with record daily inflows, driving supply-demand tension.
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Have you ever fought desperately for something?
People often ask, teacher, do you rest during the day and watch the market at night? Now I reply to everyone uniformly, since I truly entered the crypto world, whenever the market moves, I wake up. I take contracts seriously, and so does my trading. #币安Alpha上新 #鲍威尔发言
People often ask, teacher, do you rest during the day and watch the market at night? Now I reply to everyone uniformly, since I truly entered the crypto world, whenever the market moves, I wake up. I take contracts seriously, and so does my trading. #币安Alpha上新 #鲍威尔发言
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How a Crypto Veteran Transformed Quickly in 10 Years
Rapid capital accumulation through contract trading requires strict strategies, risk management, and precise judgment of market trends. It is divided into four parts: core strategies, risk control, technical tools, and practical cases.
1. Core strategy: Phased operations and leverage management
1. Phased capital accumulation
Phase one (small capital rolling):
Initial capital (e.g., 5,000 yuan) rapidly accumulates through contract rolling. For example, each time using 100 USDT (approximately 730 yuan) to gamble on hot coins, setting strict take-profit and stop-loss (e.g., 200 USDT → 400 USDT → 800 USDT → 1600 USDT), with a maximum of three consecutive all-ins, and upon success, enter the next phase.
1. Core strategy: Phased operations and leverage management
1. Phased capital accumulation
Phase one (small capital rolling):
Initial capital (e.g., 5,000 yuan) rapidly accumulates through contract rolling. For example, each time using 100 USDT (approximately 730 yuan) to gamble on hot coins, setting strict take-profit and stop-loss (e.g., 200 USDT → 400 USDT → 800 USDT → 1600 USDT), with a maximum of three consecutive all-ins, and upon success, enter the next phase.
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The current issue facing the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts is timing. If high tariffs lead to a severe slowdown in economic growth, it may force the Federal Reserve to cut rates quickly to support economic growth.
If the impact of tariffs on inflation is small, it is "very likely" that the Federal Reserve will consider cutting rates in the second half of 2025. Rate cuts can indeed allow more liquidity to enter the market. Regardless of whether there is a rate cut in May, there will be a wave of speculation, and a rebound market is approaching, testing people's hearts and execution capabilities as well.
If the impact of tariffs on inflation is small, it is "very likely" that the Federal Reserve will consider cutting rates in the second half of 2025. Rate cuts can indeed allow more liquidity to enter the market. Regardless of whether there is a rate cut in May, there will be a wave of speculation, and a rebound market is approaching, testing people's hearts and execution capabilities as well.
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When the US dollar index falters, I know it's stable.
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Trump is at it again 💥
Not only did he strongly support cryptocurrency in his speech, but he has now also directly displayed Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin white paper in the White House 🏛️📜
This move is not just an attitude, but a declaration: America aims to be the leader in crypto!
Whether in policy direction or public opinion, Bitcoin is stepping into the mainstream spotlight.
Not only did he strongly support cryptocurrency in his speech, but he has now also directly displayed Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin white paper in the White House 🏛️📜
This move is not just an attitude, but a declaration: America aims to be the leader in crypto!
Whether in policy direction or public opinion, Bitcoin is stepping into the mainstream spotlight.
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Can Bitcoin shorts completely turn into daily bulls?
In terms of time, the last time Bitcoin dropped rapidly to a trend reversal took 67 days of oscillation. This time, it has only been 20 days since the accelerated drop, indicating that the time is far from sufficient.
From a price structure analysis, Bitcoin's daily high and low points are continuously decreasing, and the bears still dominate the market rhythm, with the downtrend unchanged.
In terms of moving averages, Bitcoin is running below the EMA20 and EMA50 moving averages. Although there was an attempt to break above EMA20 yesterday, it was suppressed and fell back.
Therefore, before a clear direction emerges, the market is likely to oscillate repeatedly, inducing both longs and shorts, making it unsuitable for heavy bets on direction.
In terms of time, the last time Bitcoin dropped rapidly to a trend reversal took 67 days of oscillation. This time, it has only been 20 days since the accelerated drop, indicating that the time is far from sufficient.
From a price structure analysis, Bitcoin's daily high and low points are continuously decreasing, and the bears still dominate the market rhythm, with the downtrend unchanged.
In terms of moving averages, Bitcoin is running below the EMA20 and EMA50 moving averages. Although there was an attempt to break above EMA20 yesterday, it was suppressed and fell back.
Therefore, before a clear direction emerges, the market is likely to oscillate repeatedly, inducing both longs and shorts, making it unsuitable for heavy bets on direction.
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Factors Behind the Surge
BTC experienced a surge within 12 hours recently (March 20, 2025), which may be driven by multiple factors:
1. Technical breakthroughs and market sentiment shift
Breakthrough of key resistance levels: Bitcoin has broken through long-term moving averages (such as the 200-day moving average), converting resistance into support and triggering technical buying. Such breakthroughs are often seen as bullish signals, attracting short-term traders and algorithmic trading.
Market sentiment is high: The greed sentiment indicator shows the market has shifted from 'neutral' to 'greed', boosting investor confidence and driving prices up rapidly.
1. Technical breakthroughs and market sentiment shift
Breakthrough of key resistance levels: Bitcoin has broken through long-term moving averages (such as the 200-day moving average), converting resistance into support and triggering technical buying. Such breakthroughs are often seen as bullish signals, attracting short-term traders and algorithmic trading.
Market sentiment is high: The greed sentiment indicator shows the market has shifted from 'neutral' to 'greed', boosting investor confidence and driving prices up rapidly.
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There Will Always Be Those Who Want to Make a Comeback
I. The Essence of Volatility in the Cryptocurrency Market
1. Historical Perspective
The 519 Incident (May 19, 2021): China's exit policy triggered panic, Bitcoin plummeted 30% in a single day, Ethereum was halved, and altcoins generally fell over 50%, marking a historically significant black swan event. In contrast, the current declines (BTC -2%, ETH -8%) are merely normal fluctuations.
Long-Term Patterns: The crypto market is known for its "boom and bust" cycles, with 20%-30% daily fluctuations being common, necessitating the use of historical data to build awareness and avoid being misled by short-term volatility.
2. The Destructive Power of a Volatile Market
In March 2023, BTC traded sideways between $55,000 and $74,000 for several months, while the range of $86,000 to $104,000 in 2024 led to numerous high-leverage contract liquidations. Sideways markets are particularly deadly for contract players due to the erosion of time costs and funding rates, which far exceed spot trading.
1. Historical Perspective
The 519 Incident (May 19, 2021): China's exit policy triggered panic, Bitcoin plummeted 30% in a single day, Ethereum was halved, and altcoins generally fell over 50%, marking a historically significant black swan event. In contrast, the current declines (BTC -2%, ETH -8%) are merely normal fluctuations.
Long-Term Patterns: The crypto market is known for its "boom and bust" cycles, with 20%-30% daily fluctuations being common, necessitating the use of historical data to build awareness and avoid being misled by short-term volatility.
2. The Destructive Power of a Volatile Market
In March 2023, BTC traded sideways between $55,000 and $74,000 for several months, while the range of $86,000 to $104,000 in 2024 led to numerous high-leverage contract liquidations. Sideways markets are particularly deadly for contract players due to the erosion of time costs and funding rates, which far exceed spot trading.
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Withdrawal and Deposit Security Manual
In cryptocurrency trading, the safety and compliance of withdrawals and deposits are crucial. Below are risk avoidance strategies based on years of experience in withdrawals and deposits, covering operational techniques and legal compliance aspects:
I. Risk avoidance during the deposit phase
1. Choose compliant platforms
Prioritize regulated trading platforms with licenses (such as HashKey Exchange, Binance, etc.), as these platforms usually have strict anti-money laundering (AML) and know your customer (KYC) procedures, which can reduce the risk of funds being frozen or involved in illegal activities.
Verify the platform's qualifications, check whether it has publicly available operational history and user reviews, and avoid using small or anonymous exchanges.
I. Risk avoidance during the deposit phase
1. Choose compliant platforms
Prioritize regulated trading platforms with licenses (such as HashKey Exchange, Binance, etc.), as these platforms usually have strict anti-money laundering (AML) and know your customer (KYC) procedures, which can reduce the risk of funds being frozen or involved in illegal activities.
Verify the platform's qualifications, check whether it has publicly available operational history and user reviews, and avoid using small or anonymous exchanges.
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How to suffer a big loss
The essence of achieving "big losses and small gains" in cryptocurrency trading (i.e., profits covering losses and overall positive returns) is to reduce the probability of losses and magnify profit opportunities through strict risk management, disciplined operations and scientific trading strategies. The following are some key principles and practical methods:
1. Core Principle: Risk First
1. Maximum loss limit for a single transaction
Set a maximum loss for each transaction (such as 1-3% of the principal) to avoid major drawdowns caused by a single mistake.
Example: The principal is 100,000 yuan, and the upper limit of single loss is 2%, that is, the maximum single loss is 2,000 yuan. You must leave the market when the stop loss is triggered.
1. Core Principle: Risk First
1. Maximum loss limit for a single transaction
Set a maximum loss for each transaction (such as 1-3% of the principal) to avoid major drawdowns caused by a single mistake.
Example: The principal is 100,000 yuan, and the upper limit of single loss is 2%, that is, the maximum single loss is 2,000 yuan. You must leave the market when the stop loss is triggered.
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According to the current market conditions of the Big Pie Aunt, prices continue to decline, hitting new lows, and it is clearly not suitable to go long at this time. Since last Thursday, when the price started from 92,000, it has shown a trend of slow decline and oscillation downwards. Even after reaching the support level, there was a rebound, but the downtrend continued afterward.
From the analysis of the charts, whether it's the 4-hour chart or the daily chart, there has not yet been a rapid, accelerated drop. This indicates that the current bearish trend has not ended, and another accelerated drop may be needed to reach a bottom, followed by a rebound, before a short-term bottom may be achieved.
After the market opened at eight this morning, the price began to decline continuously, having already dropped below 78,000, with the lowest point reaching around 76,600. Once 78,000 is effectively broken, the price is likely to move towards the 75,000-74,000 range.
In the short term, when the price first touches the 75,500-74,500 area, one can gradually enter long positions with light positions. However, caution is required; if 73,000 is broken, the price will most likely fall back to 70,000 or even lower.
For short positions, one can operate based on the 80,000 resistance level, which is also near the high point of the rebound in the early morning. Shorting at 79,500-80,000 with a target looking towards 77,000-76,000.
As for Aunt, many previously believed that 2,000 was a hard bottom, but I had long predicted that 2,000 would not hold, and 1,800 would also be difficult to support. Now the lowest point has reached around 1,750. According to the current trend, it is highly likely that Aunt will break lower, reaching 1,650-1,600.
From the analysis of the charts, whether it's the 4-hour chart or the daily chart, there has not yet been a rapid, accelerated drop. This indicates that the current bearish trend has not ended, and another accelerated drop may be needed to reach a bottom, followed by a rebound, before a short-term bottom may be achieved.
After the market opened at eight this morning, the price began to decline continuously, having already dropped below 78,000, with the lowest point reaching around 76,600. Once 78,000 is effectively broken, the price is likely to move towards the 75,000-74,000 range.
In the short term, when the price first touches the 75,500-74,500 area, one can gradually enter long positions with light positions. However, caution is required; if 73,000 is broken, the price will most likely fall back to 70,000 or even lower.
For short positions, one can operate based on the 80,000 resistance level, which is also near the high point of the rebound in the early morning. Shorting at 79,500-80,000 with a target looking towards 77,000-76,000.
As for Aunt, many previously believed that 2,000 was a hard bottom, but I had long predicted that 2,000 would not hold, and 1,800 would also be difficult to support. Now the lowest point has reached around 1,750. According to the current trend, it is highly likely that Aunt will break lower, reaching 1,650-1,600.
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