It's late at night, and I can't sleep. A friend is chatting with me about Ethereum, so I want to share some thoughts with everyone.

My last spot trade was in late November when I sold Ethereum at a price of 3500. Since then, I have basically completed my spot liquidation, and I haven't made any spot purchases until today.

From late November to late January, I have been warning everyone about risks and slowly building short positions. During this period, I have faced a lot of criticism. There were a few significant instances of harsh criticism. First, when the market rose from late November to early December, I mentioned in early December to short altcoins for the long term, saying they were likely to be halved. I was heavily criticized for that, but my altcoin short positions were closed as early as February.

Later, when the market started to decline in early December, I wasn't criticized anymore; instead, I was supported. Then, when the prices rose again, I was criticized once more. I maintained a rational analysis. On January 20th, during that sharp rise, think about it yourself afterwards: was this not a significant exit? Was it not a weekly-level top divergence, signaling the end of the bull market? In fact, you can see it now in hindsight, but at that time, I said this rise was very desperate for the bulls. From this rise, it was clear to see the bears; short positions should be built with a liquidation price of 110,000. Many scoffed at this, but the result proved it right.

At that time, the mainstream opinion in the market was to go long for small multiples, it was the February dragon's head, it was the February altcoin season, it was a big rally for the Spring Festival...

In trading, the principle is simple: buy low and sell high. This unchanging truth remains. If there is a sharp decline next week, then the week after, I will start positioning for medium to long-term long positions. Will there be another wave of criticism then? Or when it really drops to the 60s, will someone begin to short for the long term? I believe there will be because that’s human nature.

Swing trading and trend trading have different focuses. When we do swing trading, the risk-reward ratio and success rate are very important. When we do trend trading, the sense of direction and position management are crucial. Regardless of whether it is swing trading or trend trading, the most important thing is the mindset. When you have free time, go out for a walk and enjoy the scenery along the way; it will help with your mood and emotions.

No matter if you have criticized me in the past, I sincerely hope everything goes well for you in the future and that you gain something from it~