Trump changes his stance daily. The main purpose of launching a global tariff war this time is to implement a debt swap strategy, attempting to promote the issuance of interest-free century bonds, deferring short-term debt repayment pressure, while asking allies to increase their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds under the guise of sharing NATO military expenses.
Secondly, he aims to lower Treasury yields, that is, by creating trade uncertainty, forcing capital to flow back into the U.S. Treasury market, thereby reducing U.S. Treasury yields and saving on interest payments.
Currently, the only certainty in the market is that in 2025, $9.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds will mature and need to be redeemed, with $6.5 trillion maturing in June alone. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, the U.S. Treasury will need to pay more than $300 billion in interest, leading to unprecedented fiscal pressure.
Therefore, it can be expected that Trump's tariff war may gradually become clearer by the end of June.