👉 If BTC breaks through the critical resistance level of $97,000 — this area集中着约 392,000 BTC (over $37 billion), it may form a "selling pressure wall".
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $95,000. If it breaks through $97,000, it needs to digest at least $3.7 billion in sell orders, which poses a severe test for the market's capital absorption capacity.
👉 There are two major contradictions in the current market:
One is the mismatch between optimistic sentiment and capital flows.
Although institutions like Matrixport are optimistic about Bitcoin breaking through $95,000, Glassnode data shows that the active supply of Bitcoin is expected to grow by 70% in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the expansion of the circulating supply may dilute the effect of capital pushing the price.
The second is the tug-of-war between technical and macro factors.
Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies may weaken the market's momentum to break resistance levels, while the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has dropped to 0.65, indicating an enhanced safe-haven attribute. If macro risks increase, it may attract capital to counter-cyclically increase positions.
👉 Two major signals to pay attention to:
One is whether trading volume can continue to expand. Currently, Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume is about $156.5 billion, a 36% increase from the previous day. If the trading volume does not increase when breaking through $97,000, it may trigger a technical sell-off.
The second is changes in derivatives market positions. The open interest in Bitcoin futures has recently increased, but the funding rate is still at a neutral level, indicating that the long-short divergence has not yet intensified. If the funding rate rises rapidly, it may indicate overheating in short-term speculation.
Overall, for ordinary investors, it is necessary to be wary of the "chasing high and picking up" risk, and to focus on the synergistic effect between spot buying and derivatives positions. Only when these two resonate can they provide lasting momentum for a breakthrough.
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