1. Russia-Ukraine situation: Short-term safe-haven sentiment is cooling, but long-term uncertainty remains.
Core of the event:
Russia proposed a '72-hour ceasefire from May 8 to 10,' which the US described as 'absurd,' insisting on a 'lasting agreement'; Putin reiterated the willingness for 'unconditional negotiations' but emphasized the need to safeguard Russian interests.
Market signals: Although the ceasefire proposal briefly boosted risk appetite (stock market rebound), significant core demand differences exist between both parties, and actual implementation is questionable. If subsequent negotiations collapse, the geopolitical risk premium may quickly rebound.
Impact on Bitcoin:
Short-term bearish: Easing of safe-haven sentiment may lead to some funds flowing out of Bitcoin and other high-risk assets, shifting towards traditional safe-haven assets (gold, US Treasuries).
Long-term game: If the conflict escalates or sanctions intensify, Bitcoin as a 'decentralized safe-haven asset' may regain investor favor (referencing the early market conditions during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022).
2. Adjustment of US auto tariff policy: Inflation expectations and dollar liquidity game.
Core of the event:
Trump signed an executive order to cancel 'separate tariffs' on imported cars and parts, avoiding overlap with steel/aluminum tariffs and reducing corporate costs.
Impact on Bitcoin:
Short-term bearish: Tariff softening may ease inflation pressure, reducing the necessity for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, indirectly bearish for Bitcoin (as rising real interest rates suppress risk asset valuations).
Structural contradiction: If policy loosening triggers market optimism about 'trade war easing,' it may strengthen the upward trend of US stocks, diverting funds from the crypto market; however, if inflation rebounds beyond expectations, Bitcoin as an anti-inflation asset may benefit.
3. Escalation of the India-Pakistan situation: A safe-haven pulse on the brink of nuclear deterrence.
Core of the event:
Pakistan claims India plans 'military strikes within 24-36 hours,' with bilateral tensions reaching historic highs (both possess nuclear weapons).
Impact on Bitcoin:
Short-term bullish: The rising risk of nuclear conflict will trigger extreme safe-haven sentiment, and funds may flow into Bitcoin and other 'non-sovereign safe-haven assets' (similar to Bitcoin's rise during the 2020 negative oil price crisis).
Risk warning: The impact of such geopolitical crises on the crypto market is short-lived, and caution is needed regarding 'pulse-like surges followed by declines.'
Comprehensive assessment and strategy recommendations
Short-term (1-7 days)
Hedging of bullish and bearish factors:
Bearish dominance: Easing Russia-Ukraine tensions + tariff softening may suppress Bitcoin's upward space
Potential bullish: The India-Pakistan situation may trigger short-term safe-haven buying
Trading recommendations:
Monitor developments in the India-Pakistan situation; if the conflict does not escalate significantly, consider reducing positions on rallies; if geopolitical risks spill over to regions like the Middle East, consider light long positions.
Medium to long-term (over 1 month)
Core variables:
Federal Reserve monetary policy path (tariff policy or delay in interest rate cuts);
Whether the Russia-Ukraine conflict generates new variables such as energy sanctions (affecting inflation expectations).
Strategy direction:
If the dollar index weakens due to tariff policy, Bitcoin may start a new cycle (increased probability of breaking previous highs); conversely, it will maintain volatility.
Risk warning
Crypto market sentiment indicators (such as the Fear and Greed Index) need to be synchronized for validation;
Regulatory risks (such as a shift in the US SEC's stance towards crypto-friendly policies) may amplify volatility.
Conclusion: The current market is in a 'macroeconomic event vacuum period,' with geopolitical and policy signals intertwined. It is recommended to adopt an 'event-driven swing trading' strategy, focusing on the India-Pakistan situation and statements from Federal Reserve officials.
(Note: The above analysis is based on publicly available information and historical trends and does not constitute investment advice.)
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