Fundamentals:
1. The eagle has caused instability in the financial market, with U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds moving in sync, and the dollar index breaking 100, indicating that funds are withdrawing from dollar assets. Gold has hit new highs, and risk aversion sentiment in the investment market is rising, with continuous selling pressure on U.S. bonds, and negative sentiment will be transmitted to high-risk assets.
2. Even though last night's CPI data unexpectedly fell to 2.4%, marking a new low in four years, the Federal Reserve remains deeply concerned about inflation under tariffs, and the inflation report has been completely ignored. Without the tariff trade war, the Federal Reserve would have already implemented its first rate cut this year. Wall Street is no longer buying into it, and Trump's flip-flopping behavior has lost 'credibility.'
3. Yesterday's research report emphasized that Bitcoin's upward pressure is at the 825-835 positions. During the Asian and European trading hours yesterday, it repeatedly touched 825 before retreating. The U.S. market officially began to decline, reaching a low near 785, with the lowest point at 79, completely in line with the research report expectations. It was also emphasized that Ethereum's upward pressure is at the 1630-1660 positions, with the first support at around the 1500 point. The low point yesterday was near 1490, and the overall trend aligns with expectations.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: The weekly chart shows a rebound that touches the upper 7-day moving average around 835 before retreating, with the weekly trend remaining in a downward oscillation. After a large bullish candle on the daily chart, an entity bearish candle was formed, and yesterday's decline exceeded half of the previous day's increase, indicating weak bullish sentiment in the market. Especially with the current heightened international financial risk aversion, high-risk assets are under significant pressure, making it difficult for Bitcoin to strengthen in the short term, and the overall daily trend remains in a downward oscillation. On the 4-hour chart, after a large bearish candle at the opening of the U.S. market, there was a slight rebound after the early morning low, while the Asian market remained relatively stable, and the evening U.S. market faced heavy downward pressure. In today's operations, pay close attention to the resistance at the 81-82 positions above and the support at the 77-76 positions below.
ETH: The daily chart for Ethereum shows a rise to the daily 7-day moving average before starting to retreat, with the U.S. market time period yesterday expanding the decline, forming another large bearish candle on the daily chart, falling back to the previous day's increase, and the overall daily trend maintaining a downward oscillation. On the 4-hour chart, it dropped from the Asian session to the U.S. session, finding support at the top position of this week’s low oscillation, currently in a slight rebound phase, but ultimately still expected to continue the adjustment after the rebound today. In today’s operations, focus on the resistance at the 1555-1585 positions above and the support at the 1480-1450 positions below.
Altcoins: As gold continues to hit new highs, U.S. stocks rebound briefly before continuing to decline, and the dollar index falls below the 100 mark, it can be seen that financial market assets are withdrawing from high-risk assets and flowing into safe-haven assets. Investors are experiencing high panic sentiment regarding the current financial market, and U.S. stocks face significant selling pressure, with Trump and the dollar's credibility declining. Wall Street is no longer buying into it, and market uncertainties are significant. It is best for spot altcoins to maintain a position of being out of the market and observing, without overly worrying about missing out. A sharp rise in the short term will not be sustainable, and such fleeting rises do not yield profit benefits. It is advisable to patiently wait for clear bottoming signals after market sentiment eases.
