Fundamentals:
1. The U.S. SEC has postponed the approval of five cryptocurrency assets, including Franklin spot SOL, XRP ETF, Grayscale spot HBAR ETF, and Bitwise spot DOGE ETF. According to the approval schedule, many of the postponed ETF products will still face final approval deadlines between the third and fourth quarters.
2. Australian financial regulators will crack down on inactive cryptocurrency exchanges, while the Russian anti-money laundering agency plans to classify illegal secret cryptocurrency mining as a crime. The Italian central bank warns that crypto assets pose a threat to the stability of financial stocks.
3. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 92.3%.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: In recent days, small-scale candlesticks have frequently shown sharp spikes, but the trading volume has significantly decreased. This situation usually indicates that the market is in a stage where the traders are controlling the situation but are cautious and testing the waters. This tentative operation aims to test market resilience and identify the dense areas of 'nephew clusters' and order distribution above and below, paving the way for future rises or falls. Today, the monthly line is about to close, currently forming a long lower shadow entity bullish candlestick. The monthly line needs to close with a small upper shadow, while the next monthly line is expected to continue rising. In the short term, the market still needs to continue rising and then pull back. The daily level continues to maintain a high-level adjustment phase, and in the short term, Bitcoin’s price is expected to oscillate in the 938-955 range, repairing the gap in the lower blue trend line, with an important defense line for bulls at the 92 support. At the same time, the daily bulls need to show a volume increase in the upward trend, break through and stabilize above 96 to open up the upward space to 100-106K. On the 4-hour line, it is currently in a low-volume oscillation zone, and short-term trading should avoid chasing up or cutting down. In today’s operations, pay close attention to support at 938-928 below and resistance at 952-962 above.
ETH: Ethereum has seen five consecutive monthly declines, and this month it is forming a doji candlestick. The lowest price is close to the low point since May 2022, and there is very limited space below Ethereum, entering a phase of bottom building and accumulation. The daily volume is decreasing with narrow fluctuations, and the range is gradually shrinking. The important defense line for bulls in the short term is at 1720; if it does not break on a pullback, and if the daily chart can show a volume increase, the short-term target can reach 2100. If it breaks below the 1720 defense line again, Ethereum may return below 1600 points, which is also a good time to accumulate. On the 4-hour chart, last night the price struggled to rise and retreated, with a rebound after a pullback to 1780 this morning. The center of the 4-hour candlestick is shifting downward, and during the Asian trading hours, there may be a need to continue to test around 1760. In today’s operations, pay close attention to resistance at 1815-1835 above and support at 1770-1750 below.
Shanzhai: The overall market has entered a phase of adjustment after a significant rise. The recent adjustments over the past week have formed a basic support line near the stage low point, which can serve as an important defense. The leading artificial intelligence sector stock FET has a defense line at 0.68, and WLD has a defense line at 1.05. The delay in the approval of the spot ETF was anticipated, and although XRP has seen a slight pullback, the upward trend has not been broken. The daily trend remains relatively healthy, and we look forward to signals of a volume increase!
