Daily Vol ed. 2025-04-01 🦉

Feels like a lot of the bearishness wrt to the tariff uncertainty has now been priced in.

The datetime to watch is

- Wednesday, April 2, 2025, 8:00 P.M. UTC

- Thursday, April 3, 2025, 5:00 A.M. KST

Yesterday, BTC was moving very closely with SPX with some beta to the updside indicating sellers are out or holding off until after the tariff news.

It looks like some shorts were hunted by US players, but then no follow through again.

Market is searching out pockets of liquidity.

Next target could be liquidity target could be 85k.

I'll scatter some shorts around here.

Macro-wise

I’m on the side that tariff uncertainty is priced in so tariff sellers are out, but labor market uncertainty kicks in afterwards.

So, TPing some shorts for now and scaling back in around the tariff news.

Positioning :

Reducing/TPing shorts on ETH and various alts here

Long BTC

Hold ENA ETH shorts

Positives

- GME Convertible Note$1.4b CN announced on 26th

· Guessing it takes 5-10 days to close; so April 2 and April 9, 2025?

· Still don’t think this is here yet

- Mara on the 28th also announced doing an $2b ATM equity offering for buying, but it’s more open ended so could be slower.

Negatives

- More macro uncertainty this week; Jolts today, NFP and Unemployment on Friday. Weak growth is on everyone’s mind.

- Orderbooks looking undecided both for futures and spot

- LT option skews still negative