hansolar21

vibe shift

Psychological trick i use when markets start getting hot and you want to fomo buy everything; just take a small position. Like 5% of your normal size.

Same for when you are deep in red and you want to either double down or capitulate. Using small position to add or reduce the position puts you in a much better state of mind.

Daily Vol ed. 2025-04-24 ⚖️🐂
Two days ago we were at 84k. Now we’re floating at 93k.
What an asset. 10.7% in two days.

Bessent yesterday signaled more de-escalation and stabilization, but left the timeline a bit open, disappointing markets.
Good guidance for markets, but bonds aren’t buying it yet.

BTC
BTC and crypto in general seem eager to hop on at these new highs as Bessent Jr’s 21 is making headlines.

A dangerous game, which usually get people rekt. Not much edge entering longs here.

Aggressive long entry for BTC could be around 92k.

I’m just going to hold my BTC longs as 21 entering the BTC race is good for price medium term.

ETH
ETH also looking interesting based on a potential return of ETH scenario talked about here
https://t.co/3DRSvs49UJ

Got burnt trying to long it yesterday after seeing the large spot bids on nance.
Going to take a more measured approach this week.

Positioning : Long with hedges
Long BTC, HYPE, ETH, SOL
Short ENA, XRP, BONK, TRUMP, WLD…

Positives
- 21 joins the MSTR game
- Continued BTC/SPX strength
- Macro bottom call from Felix based on extreme pessimism
- LT bitcoin skews more bullish

Negatives
- Hawkish Powell
- Retail still buying dips - Julian Brigden
- Debt refinancing wall in summer - Michael Howell
- Federal student loan maturity starting in May - Anna Wong

🕹️Currently trading mostly on @Lighter_xyz

Closed beta. Early. Points. ZK-tech. 200% apy LP-Vaults. Backed by big names. Use link to join the party. DM for access as I'm running short on codes. Only serious players apply.

Will there be another ALT SEASON season?

I'm starting to get this feeling that we might get a replay of the 2021 cycle where there were two ‘humps’.

The first hump was led by BTC with a fervent ETH-ecosystem alt season before a harrowing collapse and then a second hump along with SOL-ecosystem alt season.

SOL’s ecosystem exploded along with its price. Questionable where the bid came from, but nevertheless a fresh narrative captured the minds of crypto participants.
Additionally there was also terra luna which became a religion, dydx hit ATHs and bored apes started minting multiple multi-millionaires during the second alt season as well.

If we get something similar, we might get a similar switcheroo type scenario.

The recent alt season was a SOL based memecoin, ai led cycle, with select out-performers in ETH-adjacent ecosystems like HYPE, Virtuals and perhaps ENA, but most of the new retail were sucked into SOL memes.

Perhaps this time, we get a back-to-ETH rally?

I’m having a bit of trouble finding fundamental reasons for this, but the only one I find remotely persuasive is a massive mechanical short squeeze re-igniting interest in the ETH eco-system again. As narrative follows price.

It's a bit too early to tell so will be looking for signs, but dare I say it... ETH looks good here???

Some contenders for the swing trade
ETH comeback
AAVE, PENDLE, ENA, LDO comeback?
HYPE continuation
Fartcoin the fresh memecoin for retail
TAO returns?
Perhaps even some BTC betas get some time in the sun for once? ORDI, RUNES etc

look at all that call buying after the friday expiry.
this thing is going higher whether you're ready or not.

Two of the world's greatest powers playing chicken with cars that have faulty breaks

If we can get over 100k, gamma charts saying we teleport to 125k 👀

Bounce at 92k 🎯

Squeezing illiquid alts becoming a bit of sport now... seems like bulls taking back ground from overconfident bears

massive spot bid on ETH
largest imbalance since end of chart
going long.
wish me luck.

The long leg always looks good in isolation

The institutions seem to be yield farming pre-ico

🧵 Vlad has been replying to some very mis-informed fud regarding @Lighter_xyz , but it is a bit hard to find so decided to aggregate it so people can get a better idea on what the team is trying to build.

1. Volume relative to OI is too high / Lighter is over-farmed
https://t.co/yHXWshDkRu

2. Lighter is full of wash-trading / Lighter is pumping volume on purpose
https://t.co/3rjkmzckbo
https://t.co/TxoG6gj8Xq
https://t.co/Qvx8ALHvd8

3. Zero fees are only temporary

chop season is actually more PvE than bull markets

fewer eyes on the markets, so the counter-party is actually less informed than hyper-competitive fast rotation bull markets

Daily Vol ed. 2025-04-19 ⚖️🐻
BTC makes another attempt at 88k and having trouble breaking through.
Some pretty sizable spot CVDs trying to get it through atm.

This is an important trigger for risk on/off i reckon(the previous attempt was during Liberation day)

Alts also dumping very hard into this resistance showing some bearish signals;
- Lack of demand on alts other than for a short squeeze and
- still plenty of supply overhang left over.

Current thinking
Staying neutral and airing towards bearish as we’re at the top of the range.

Positioning : Delta-neutral.
- Long BTC(Bidding below 80k), HYPE
- Short ETH, SOL, ENA, XRP, APT, SUI, TRUMP, FARTCOIN…

Positives
- Continued BTC/SPX strength
- Macro bottom call from Felix based on extreme pessimism

Negatives
- Hawkish Powell
- Bonds market is fine - Joseph Wang
- Retail still buying dips - Julian Brigden
- Debt refinancing wall in summer - Michael Howell

Stay safe frens

🕹️Currently trading mostly on @Lighter_xyz

Closed beta. Early. Points. ZK-tech. 200% apy LP-Vaults. Backed by big names. Use link to join the party. DM for access as I'm running short on codes. Only serious players apply.

The lighter stats page just dropped 👀

And yes, that drawdown hurt.

Previous post on volumes, which I've deleted now should have been posted with some context.

A lot of the volume is coming from a few HFTs that are utilizing the zero fees.

The team confirmed there is zero self-matching which is how washed-volume can take place(especially in a lot of shady cexes)

And they're closely monitoring with multiple algorithms for people that may be abusing the program.

Zero-fees and fomo from the successful hyperliquid drop was bound to lead to exaggerated volumes on lighter considering what they've built and the connections they have, but it only takes a slightly more in-depth look to see that the team isn't looking to just show off fake metrics.

The volume picture does get me excited personally,but I will be providing a more nuanced picture of the growth of Lighter focusing on TVL, OI and user growth.

trade 👉 win 👉 deposit on 220% apr LLP 👉 repeat

trade 👉 win 👉 deposit into 220% apr LLP 👉 repeat