One of the most powerful on-chain metrics for understanding short-term investor behavior is the Short-Term Holder Net Realized PNL to Exchanges (CEXs).
It tells us:
✅ Who is selling? (by age of the coins spent)
✅ Are they selling at a profit or a loss?
✅ How intense is the selling pressure?
🔍 What’s Happening Now?
Bitcoin holders who have held their coins between 1 month and 3 months have been the most active sellers over the past few days—realizing losses. This is a significant shift because, historically, the most reactive sellers tend to be those who have held for less than a week (0d-1w cohort).
But here’s where it gets interesting:
💡 The realized losses have been relatively low compared to unrealized losses.
💡 Selling pressure to exchanges has noticeably declined.
This indicates that, on average, short-term holders who purchased Bitcoin within the last six months are opting to hold onto their assets rather than panic sell.
They see value in their positions despite being in the red.
⚖️ What This Could Mean
In previous cycles, heavy realized losses often preceded local bottoms.
But when we see a slowdown in selling pressure, it can indicate a shift in sentiment: A willingness to endure short-term pain for long-term gain.
This data doesn’t predict the future, but it gives us a clearer picture of market psychology. Are short-term holders finally holding the line? If so, this could reduce downside volatility and set the stage for stabilization, or even a reversal.
Btw, Short-term holders currently own 28% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. If these UTXOs transition into the hands of long-term holders, it could serve as a driving force for Bitcoin’s ultimate surge beyond $150K.. I stand by my words.
🚀 What’s next? The coming weeks will be crucial. If we continue to see weak realized losses and lower selling pressure, it could signal a bottoming process in action.
Your move, Bitcoin.
Written by onchained
