Bitcoin’s interaction with the Realized Price of long-term holders' UTXOs has historically been a key indicator of market direction, as it represents the average acquisition cost of these holders. Bear markets typically begin when the price drops below the realized price of the 6-12 month cohort, signaling losses and potential distribution by these investors.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the realized price of the 3-6 month cohort at $88K but remains above the 6-12 month cohort’s realized price of $62K. This suggests that while the market is undergoing a deep correction, it is too early to confirm the onset of a bear market.
Bitcoin is likely to continue its corrective retracement within this range until new demand enters the market. The $88K level remains a critical threshold—an ultimate breakout above it could signal the start of a fresh uptrend.
Written by ShayanBTC
