Market Review
The U.S. dollar index rose overall this week and will record its first increase in four weeks. The boost behind it mainly comes from U.S. tariff policies and remarks. After Trump claimed that he would start imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week, the U.S. dollar index suddenly jumped on Thursday and returned to above the 107 mark, marking the largest single-day increase in two months.
Affected by factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and traders' profit-taking, spot gold recorded its eleventh record high since 2025 this week, reaching a high of $2,956 during the session, but then began to correct. On Tuesday, it fell more than $60 from its high and on Thursday it fell more than $50. This week is expected to close with a weekly decline for the first time in more than two months.
In terms of non-US currencies, the U.S. dollar rose against the Japanese yen. Suppressed by the rebound of the U.S. dollar, the euro, pound sterling and Australian dollar all fell against the U.S. dollar.
International oil prices are expected to close down for the sixth consecutive week. At the beginning of the week, due to the new sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran and Iraq's promise to balance the previous overproduction, the market's concerns about recent supply tightness intensified, and oil prices rose. But then due to weak economic data in developed countries, the market turned to worry about insufficient demand. At the same time, some countries also said that oil production is expected to increase, and Russia and Ukraine may reach a peace agreement. Many factors put pressure on oil prices.
Stocks and currencies of many countries ushered in a "death Friday". Affected by Trump's new round of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the sell-off spread to the Asia-Pacific region on Friday after the US stock market plummeted on Thursday. Japan's stock index recorded its largest monthly decline since the end of December 2022, Thailand's benchmark stock index will enter a technical bear market, South Korea and Indonesia led the decline in emerging Asian currencies and stocks, the Hang Seng Index recorded its largest single-day decline since October, and India's Nifty 50 index fell for the fifth consecutive month, the longest consecutive decline in 29 years.
Bitcoin's performance this week also caused panic, falling below the $80,000 mark, the lowest level since November last year, and down nearly $30,000 from its peak this year. Trump's tariff remarks and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance have increased global risk aversion, with investors selling risky assets such as Bitcoin. The digital currency has fallen more than 25% from its peak.
Investment Banking Viewpoints
Hedge fund tycoon Cohen said U.S. economic growth may slow in the second half of the year as tariffs, tighter immigration laws and government cost-cutting led by Musk weigh on the economy.
Bloomberg's latest survey of economists shows that US inflation is expected to rise in the short term and the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates again until July.
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase believe that investors' retreat from U.S. stocks will not last long given the outlook for economic growth and corporate earnings.
Goldman Sachs believes that supported by valuation advantages and policy expectations, A-shares are expected to overtake Hong Kong stocks in the next three months, with an estimated excess return of 2%.
Morgan Stanley Research strategists said U.S. Treasuries are unlikely to rebound further unless the market significantly increases its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Events of the week
1. On the third anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine relationship, US-Russia relations warmed up, but Europe and the United States had different views
There are several key points worth paying attention to on the Russian and Ukrainian side this week, including Zelensky's willingness to resign as president in exchange for peace in Ukraine, the hope that a US-Ukraine mineral agreement will be reached, major differences between the US and Europe on their positions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and signs of warming in US-Russia relations.
On February 23, Ukrainian President Zelensky responded to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the dispute over the mineral agreement with the United States, and Trump's verbal attacks. He reiterated the importance of Ukraine joining NATO and obtaining security guarantees, and pointed out that the date proposed by Trump to end the war this week is "unfeasible." He also said that the current US mineral agreement is not in Ukraine's interests and he will not sign this agreement that "will take ten generations to pay back." At the same time, Zelensky said that he is willing to resign as president in exchange for peace or joining NATO.
U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing for a "U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement" with Ukraine, while the European Union has proposed a "win-win" agreement with Ukraine on "critical materials." Ukraine's deputy prime minister said negotiations on the U.S. minerals agreement are nearing completion, and Trump said Zelensky is expected to visit Washington this week to sign a natural resources agreement.
According to the Financial Times, Ukraine has reached an agreement with the United States on a mineral deal aimed at improving relations with the Trump administration and laying the foundation for a long-term U.S. security commitment. The agreement will involve the joint development of Ukraine's mineral resources, including oil and gas, and the establishment of a fund into which Ukraine will invest 50% of state-owned mineral resources and future earnings. The fund will focus on Ukrainian projects, but will not include existing mineral revenues, such as Naftogaz or Ukrnafta's activities.
On February 26, Trump said at the White House that Zelensky would visit Washington on February 28 to sign the agreement, but the final text of the agreement did not make a clear commitment to Ukraine's security guarantees. According to the text released by Ukrainian media, the agreement mentioned in Article 10 that the United States supports the security guarantees needed for Ukraine's struggle for peace. Senior US officials said that this mineral agreement does not include future US security support commitments for Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Zelensky also pointed out that the final version of the agreement did not involve Ukraine’s debt, and that the mineral agreement with the United States was only a framework agreement, and the details of establishing the fund would continue to be discussed later.
On the third anniversary of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the UN Security Council and the General Assembly respectively adopted two opposing resolutions. On February 24, the UN General Assembly adopted a draft resolution proposed by Ukraine and Europe with 93 votes in favor, 65 abstentions and 18 votes against. The resolution reiterated that any territory acquired by force or threat of force cannot be recognized, and called for the full implementation of previous resolutions against Ukrainian aggression. The United States, Russia and other countries opposed it, and China abstained from voting. At the same time, the General Assembly rejected another draft resolution submitted by the United States, which called for a quick end to the conflict and lasting peace, but did not mention Russia's "aggression".
After the talks in Riyadh, US-Russia relations showed signs of warming, and representatives of the two countries also planned to discuss the normalization of embassy operations on Thursday. Putin praised Trump for being "pragmatic" and looked forward to resuming engagement with the US government.
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered the United States the opportunity to jointly explore rare earth metal deposits and supply aluminum to the U.S. market, and also outlined future economic cooperation between the two countries. Russia is willing to provide services to U.S. partners, including government agencies and companies, if they are interested in participating in joint work. Trump previously said he would launch a "major economic development deal" with Russia.
On February 24, Putin said after a meeting on the development of the rare earth metal industry that Russia is willing to carry out joint projects with the United States, especially in the field of exploring rare earth metal deposits in Russia. At the same time, Putin mentioned that Russian companies are ready to supply aluminum to the US market. If the US market reopens, Russia can supply up to 2 million tons of aluminum per year, accounting for 15% of US aluminum imports. He also suggested that the two sides could cooperate in the fields of hydropower and aluminum production in the Krasnoyarsk region, with an estimated investment of $15 billion. In addition, Putin said that there is also potential for cooperation between the two sides in the energy field, although no specific details were provided.
2. Trump: Tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4
US President Trump said on social media that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will be implemented on March 4. In addition, Trump also said that reciprocal tariffs will be implemented on April 2. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said that if the Trump administration continues to implement "unreasonable tariff policies", Canada is ready to fight back.
In response to US President Trump's announcement on the 26th that he would impose a 25% tariff on EU imports, the French Minister of Economy and Finance also said that if the US imposes tariffs on the EU, the EU will respond with the same measures. As for the UK, Trump said that the two sides will reach a "great trade deal" and will eventually reach a very good deal for both countries. They are working hard for this and expect to reach the agreement with the UK soon.
Separately, Trump on Feb. 26 opened another front in his assault on global trade rules by ordering a new investigation into possible new tariffs on copper imports to rebuild U.S. production of the metal, which is vital to electric vehicles, military hardware, semiconductors and a wide range of consumer products.
Trump signed an order directing Commerce Secretary Lutnick to launch a new national security investigation under Section 232 of the 1962 (Expansion of Trade Act), the same law Trump used to impose 25% global tariffs on steel and aluminum during his first term. The countries most affected by potential U.S. copper tariffs would be Chile, Canada and Mexico, the top suppliers of refined copper and copper products in 2024, according to U.S. survey data.
3. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the government work report
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on February 28 to discuss the draft of the Government Work Report that the State Council plans to submit to the Third Session of the 14th National People's Congress for deliberation. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting.
The meeting pointed out that in the past year, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core has taken overall control, responded calmly, united and led the whole Party and people of all ethnic groups in the country to successfully complete the main goals and tasks of economic and social development. my country's economic operation is generally stable, with steady progress, high-quality development is steadily advancing, the overall social situation remains stable, and China's modernization has taken new and solid steps.
The meeting also pointed out that it will implement more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, expand domestic demand, promote the integrated development of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, stabilize the real estate and stock markets, prevent and resolve risks and external shocks in key areas; accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, solidly promote high-quality development, further comprehensively deepen reforms, expand high-level opening up to the outside world, build a modern industrial system, and better coordinate development and security.
4. Trump launches $5 million immigration gold card, claims to earn $15 trillion
On February 26, U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick announced that the U.S. will end the EB-5 investment visa program, calling it "nonsense." At the same time, the U.S. will launch a "gold card" visa program similar to the green card, requiring foreigners to pay $5 million and, after review, may obtain a green card. This plan aims to reduce the U.S. deficit through foreign investment. Trump said that foreign immigrants who are willing to pay $5 million and create jobs can obtain a gold card through this legal immigration program, which is expected to be implemented in two weeks.
Lutnick also revealed that currently about 250,000 people are "queuing" to apply for EB-5, and each gold card costs $5 million. These applications will bring $1.25 trillion in revenue to the U.S. Trump said in a cabinet meeting that if 10 million gold cards can be sold, it will help the U.S. repay the national debt and may even earn $15 trillion for the U.S.
5. Trump: If you are dissatisfied with Musk, you can "drive him out"
On February 26, US President Trump held the first cabinet meeting of his second term. Although not a member of the cabinet, Elon Musk, head of the Government Efficiency Department, also attended the meeting. Musk said that the main goal of the Government Efficiency Department is to help solve the huge fiscal deficit and stressed that the United States cannot afford a fiscal deficit of 2 trillion US dollars a year, otherwise it will face the risk of "bankruptcy".
In response to media reports that some cabinet members were dissatisfied with Musk's instructions, Trump said that some cabinet members "kind of disagreed" with Musk's approach. He said that if anyone was dissatisfied with Musk, they could be "kicked out." This remark triggered applause from cabinet members. Trump then added that although some people disagreed with Musk's approach, most people respected and were excited about his work.
6. DeepSeek open source week ends, R2 model may be released ahead of schedule
DeepSeek's "Open Source Week" event has officially come to an end. This week, we will open source FlashMLA, DeepEP, DeepGEMM, Optimized Parallelism Strategies, and Fire-Flyer File System (3FS).
DeepSeek also announced this week that the DeepSeek open platform will launch off-peak discounts during the idle night hours from 00:30 to 08:30 Beijing time. During this period, the price of API calls has been significantly reduced: DeepSeek-V3 has been reduced to 50% of the original price, and DeepSeek-R1 has been reduced to 25%. DeepSeek said that it encourages users to make full use of this period to enjoy a more economical and smoother service experience.
Recently, there are reports that the DeepSeek-R2 model, originally scheduled to be released in May this year, is being developed at an accelerated pace and may be released ahead of schedule. The new model is expected to generate better quality code and support reasoning in non-English languages. In response, DeepSeek's parent company, Magic Square Quant, said that the specific situation will be subject to official news.
7. Lei Jun's "China's Richest Man Experience Card"? Xiaomi SU7 Ultra is 300,000 yuan lower than the pre-sale price
Due to the surge in Xiaomi Group's stock price, on February 27, the news that "Lei Jun's wealth surpassed Nongfu Spring's Zhong Shanshan and became China's new richest man" was once a hot search, attracting widespread attention. Some people believe that Zhong Shanshan is still the richest man in China, while others say that Lei Jun's wealth has not surpassed ByteDance's Zhang Yiming. In the afternoon of the same day, Lei Jun responded to the news in the Wuhan University alumni group, calling it "fake news."
On the same day, Xiaomi held a new product launch conference for Xiaomi 15 Ultra and Xiaomi SU7 Ultra. The Xiaomi 15 Ultra phone was unveiled, equipped with a Snapdragon 8 Extreme Edition chip, a 6000mAh battery, and positioned as the pinnacle of imaging technology flagship, priced from 6,499 yuan; Xiaomi SU7 Ultra was released, aiming to become the fastest four-door mass-produced car on the planet, equipped with Xiaomi's super three-motor system, standard track version cooling system, braking system, and Nürburgring-tuned chassis system, the standard version can go directly on the track.
The price of SU7 Ultra is 529,900 yuan, which caused cheers at the scene, because it is nearly 300,000 yuan lower than the pre-sale price of 814,900 yuan. On the evening of February 27, Lei Jun announced that within 10 minutes of the launch of Xiaomi SU7 Ultra, the pre-order volume exceeded 6,900 units; within 2 hours of the launch, the pre-order volume exceeded 10,000 units, achieving a key goal.
8. Nvidia's performance and guidance both exceeded expectations
Nvidia's quarterly revenue surged, exceeding Wall Street expectations, as demand for its specialized AI chips surged. The company's revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 increased 78% year-on-year to $39.3 billion, higher than the market's expectations of around $38 billion. Nvidia said it expects revenue of $43 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, roughly in line with Wall Street's expectations of about $42 billion. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the demand for Blackwell is staggering because reasoning AI adds another law of expansion - increasing training computing makes models smarter, and increasing long-term thinking computing makes answers smarter.
9. Major announcement in Hong Kong!
On February 26, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced the 2025/2026 budget, predicting economic growth of 2.5% in 2024, a deficit of HK$87.2 billion in 2024/2025, and economic growth of 2%-3% in 2025.
He said that in terms of the capital market, the mainland and Hong Kong are promoting the inclusion of RMB trading counters in the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Stock Connect and promoting the arrangement of multiple counters for a single stock to improve trading efficiency. The SAR government plans to legislate to support RMB counter transactions and stock stamp duty.
Chan Mo-po also said that Hong Kong will optimize the interconnection mechanism with the mainland, launch offshore treasury bond futures, expand cross-border wealth management, and improve the liquidity of the securities market. Hong Kong will also review listing requirements, be compatible with the T+1 settlement cycle, and improve the trading unit system. In addition, the Securities and Futures Commission recommends raising the position limit of derivatives based on Hong Kong's three major indexes so that the market can better hedge risks.
10. CICC and China Galaxy Securities, merger rumors lead to daily limit again!
On February 26, near the end of the A-share market, China International Capital Corporation and China Galaxy Securities, both of which are affiliated with Central Huijin Investment, hit their daily limit. Analysts believe that the unusual movement of Huijin-affiliated brokerages is related to a rumor. It is said in the market that China International Capital Corporation will merge with its peer China Galaxy Securities, and this transaction will create a brokerage giant with an asset scale of US$193 billion. Previously, the market had repeatedly exposed rumors of the merger of the two brokerages, but they were all denied by the companies.
Although relevant sources said the news was true, China Galaxy Securities said the company had not received any written or oral information from government departments, regulatory agencies or shareholders regarding the above rumors. CICC also said it had not received any written or oral information from government departments, regulatory agencies or shareholders regarding the merger. Both parties said the company had no information that should be disclosed but was not disclosed.
11. OpenAI launches GPT4.5 research preview version with higher emotional intelligence and less hallucinations
In the System Card report released by OpenAI, it stated that it is releasing a research preview of OpenAI GPT-4.5, which is its largest and most knowledge-rich model to date. Based on GPT-4o, GPT-4.5 further expands pre-training and is designed to be more general than its powerful stem reasoning model. Early tests show that interacting with GPT-4.5 feels more natural. It has a broader knowledge base, is more in line with user intent, and has higher emotional intelligence, making it ideal for tasks such as writing, programming, and solving practical problems, with fewer hallucinations.
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
