The following are the research reports of several futures companies exclusively compiled by Jinshi Futures APP, for reference only

Coking coal

Trading logic: Mongolian coal imports remain high; the absolute value of total inventory is still high; the ten rounds of coke price increases and decreases have landed; downstream coke companies and steel mills purchase on demand

Risk factors: Rumors of production restrictions at Shanxi coking plants boosted market sentiment; coking companies took the initiative to limit production after losses widened; hot metal output at steel mills stabilized and rebounded

Focus events: The actual implementation strength and diffusion effect of Shanxi's production restriction policy; the sustainability of the recovery of molten iron production and the progress of steel mills' resumption of production; the fluctuation of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume and the destocking of port stocks, etc.

Soybean meal

Trading logic: The planting area of ​​US soybeans is expected to decline; the market rumored that the sale of soybeans by the state reserves will be postponed; the import soybean arrival volume in March was relatively low; the feed enterprises have a rigid demand for replenishment

Risk factors: Trump's tariff policy has aggravated market concerns about U.S. soybean exports; expectations of bumper soybean production in South America remain; trading companies are selling at lower prices; domestic soybean meal inventories have rebounded

Focus on events: International trade relations; South American soybean harvest and selling pressure release; domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory changes; the upcoming USDA monthly report and planting intention report, etc.

Rebar

Trading logic: Apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded; the overall inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the inventory turning point is looming; there was a rush to export steel before March; market rumors say that crude steel production will be reduced by 50 million tons this year

Risk factors: The resumption of work at downstream construction sites is slower than in previous years; South Korea and Vietnam’s tariff policies on Chinese steel products have been implemented; iron ore prices are high; East China rebar guidance prices have fallen

Focus on events: the funding level and resumption progress of downstream construction sites; the production status of blast furnace and electric furnace steel mills; the implementation of the policies of the two sessions and subsequent macro policies; inventory changes, etc.

Palm Oil

Trading logic: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in February; the soybean-palm oil price gap was deeply inverted; the market expected Southeast Asian palm oil production to recover in the second half of the year; industry analysts expressed bearish views at the POC meeting

Risk factors: Malaysian palm oil stocks are at a low level; Ramadan stocking will significantly boost demand; floods have limited recovery in Southeast Asian production; Indonesia’s biodiesel policy is gradually advancing

Focus events: Indonesia's B50 policy advancement and implementation of export restrictions; Malaysia's palm oil production, high-frequency export data and inventory changes; purchasing trends of major importing countries, etc.

Shanghai Tin

Trading logic: There is a strong expectation for the resumption of tin mine production in Wa State, Myanmar; social inventory continues to accumulate; the high prices in the early stage led to a slow return of consumption; domestic refined tin production increased year-on-year

Risk factors: Terminal semiconductor demand is expected to grow driven by AI; overseas destocking is obvious, and LME tin inventory is at a low level; the tin ingot import window is temporarily closed

Focus events: Progress of resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar; changes in domestic refined tin production; recovery of demand in downstream semiconductor, electronic products and other industries, etc.

Alumina

Trading logic: Domestic and foreign production capacity gradually releases output; Guinea ore shipments have substantially recovered; overall inventory is high; operating capacity remains at a historical high

Risk factors: Signs of demand recovery are obvious; some alumina plants may have plans to reduce production; new export orders in Shandong; spot prices stabilize and rebound

Focus on the following events: the sustainability of the alumina plant's production cuts and maintenance and the resumption of production; the progress of the new production capacity and the full capacity; the resumption of production and the change in the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum plant; the shipment of ore from Guinea, etc.

soda ash

Trading logic: Many companies plan maintenance; photovoltaic glass production capacity is expected to recover; downstream companies are expected to replenish inventory at the end of the month; large factories collectively close orders to support prices

Risk factors: The overall operation and output remain high; soda ash is in a high production cycle; the absolute value of inventory is still high; the contradiction of float glass oversupply continues

Focus events: Implementation of maintenance plan; Recovery of downstream demand; Weekly changes in total inventory of soda ash manufacturers; Impact of changes in real estate policies on the glass industry, etc.

crude

Trading logic: US tariff policy may curb global oil demand growth; the cooling of interest rate cut expectations supports the rise of the US dollar index; the medium-term inventory accumulation trend is difficult to change; US crude oil production hits a record high

Risk factors: OPEC+ production cut expectations strengthened; Venezuelan crude oil exports may be restricted; cold weather in many parts of the United States is expected to boost energy demand expectations; U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected

Focus on events: The production policy decision of the OPEC+ meeting in early March; the implementation of the US tariff policy on Mexico and Canada; changes in US crude oil inventories, etc.

Disclaimer

The information in this article is compiled from public sources. This article strives to provide accurate and reliable information, but no guarantees are made as to the accuracy and completeness of this information. This article does not constitute personal investment advice. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions based on this information.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data