The introduction of trade tariffs is not just a temporary measure, but a tool that can affect the global market and financial systems for years to come. One asset that could potentially benefit from this situation is #Bitcoin. Why? Let's look at key economic concepts, statistics, and opinions from leading experts, including the head of Bitwise Invest, a former Morgan Stanley analyst.
The Triffin dilemma and the US tariff strategy.
To understand the current situation, it is necessary to consider the Triffin dilemma — a phenomenon where a country whose currency is the world reserve faces a conflict between national economic interests and global demand for its currency.
Factors affecting the US economy:
The US dollar is overvalued due to the need to hold it in the reserves of other countries.
The US is forced to maintain a constant trade deficit to supply the world with dollars.
The US government can borrow money cheaper than it should be able to, thanks to the dollar's status.
However, the US wants to keep only the last point, eliminating the first two. To achieve this, tariffs are introduced, which could lead to a revision of the global financial system in the long term.
Potential new Plaza Accord 2.0.
Global economists are already considering the possibility of a new Plaza Accord — the 1985 agreement that led to a significant weakening of the dollar. The possible scenario includes:
Reduction of dollar reserves by other countries.
Increase in the holding periods of US Treasury bonds.
Liquidity manipulation through the yield curve control (YCC) mechanism.
This process will inevitably lead to a decline in US bond yields and a weakening of the dollar, which will create a strong incentive for Bitcoin's growth.
Why Trump insists on lowering interest rates.
Donald Trump's main goal in this game is to lower the yields of 10-year bonds. The reason is simple: real estate. His assets directly depend on rates, so he is interested in lowering them.
Historical data confirms that the policy of lowering rates usually leads to growth in risky assets. For example:
From 2008 to 2021, the easing of monetary policy by the Fed caused the S&P 500 to rise by 500% and BTC to rise by more than 100,000%.
After the pandemic crisis of 2020, when the Fed lowered rates to nearly zero, Bitcoin rose from $5,000 to $69,000 in a year and a half.
Thus, if the US begins a policy of cheapening money again, Bitcoin could become the main beneficiary of this process.
Statistics and analytics: how #BTC reacts to macroeconomic changes.
Let’s consider data from CoinGlass and other analytical platforms:
Bitcoin shows a strong correlation with the liquidity index in the US: the more money in the system, the higher the demand for BTC.
The CoinGlass Heatmap analysis over the last 5 years shows that Bitcoin rises during periods of decline in the dollar index (DXY).
In the last 3 major economic crises (2008, 2020, 2022), BTC consistently became a store of value.
How global experts assess the prospects of Bitcoin.
🔹 Mike Novogratz (Galaxy Digital): 'Any form of dollar devaluation is fuel for Bitcoin.'
🔹 Ray Dalio (Bridgewater Associates): 'Fiat currencies lose purchasing power over time, and Bitcoin becomes an alternative.'
🔹 Larry Fink (BlackRock): 'Cryptocurrencies could become the foundation for a new global financial system.'
Conclusion: Bitcoin is a strategic asset in the context of a tariff war.
Taking into account macroeconomic factors, several key conclusions can be drawn:
The US aims to weaken the dollar, which will create favorable conditions for the growth of BTC.
Trump is seeking to lower rates, and historically this leads to a capital influx into crypto assets.
Bitcoin is becoming increasingly attractive in the context of financial wars and rising inflation.
📌 The tariff war will inevitably lead to a weakening of the dollar, lower interest rates, and increased inflation. In such conditions, Bitcoin may not only grow but do so faster than analysts predict. We are on the brink of a new financial era, and #BTC is one of the key tools in this process.