Right now, the crypto market resembles one big PvP arena. Liquidity is dwindling, major players are looking for who they can take the last crumbs from, and funds are manipulating trends. Welcome to financial Mortal Kombat, where the winner is the one who can adapt quickly and keeps their head.

#MemeCoins: hype or trap?

Currently, the lion's share of attention is focused on memes. They alternately come to the forefront, go into the shadow, and return with new X's. We saw this in 2021 with DOGE and SHIBA, and now we are witnessing a repetition at a new level with TRUMP, MELANIA, WIF, PEPE, and others.

However, there is a problem: the market has not yet seen an influx of new liquidity that could support such a massive number of new meme tokens.

"Growth on hype without real money turns the market into a casino, where some players take the money from others. If institutions don't start entering meme coins, their explosive growth will end with a sharp dump."

Statistics confirm this thesis: according to CoinGecko, over the past three months, the average daily trading volume of meme coins has increased by 320%, but the number of unique wallets actively trading these tokens has only increased by 18%. This means that the market is reallocating liquidity within itself, rather than receiving new inflows.

But should we then abandon memes? No. As 2021 showed, meme coins are resilient and capable of surprising. The main thing is to exit in time before the market shifts.

ETF: Bitcoin in a new guise?

The ETF has undoubtedly become an important catalyst for this cycle. However, many analysts point out that its influence is limited.

"Yes, the ETF gave the market a powerful boost, but it does not create new liquidity — it redistributes existing ones. Moreover, until an Ethereum ETF appears, altcoins will not receive the same impulse," says an analyst from Galaxy Digital.

The facts speak for themselves:

  • Since the launch of spot BTC ETFs, institutional investors have bought more than $10 billion in Bitcoin.

  • But at the same time, BTC's dominance in the market has increased from 51% to 55%, which means that money has gone into Bitcoin, not altcoins.

  • The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator, reflecting market sentiment, is at 0.58, which corresponds to the 'optimism' phase before possible euphoria.

VC tokens: is it time to admit defeat?

Another important trend is the failure of VC tokens. Venture capital capital used to be seen as a signal for growth, but now the market has learned to consider them 'relief stations.'

"VC tokens are like reheated food: at first, they look appetizing, but after 10 minutes, you want something fresh."

Statistics confirm this trend:

  • VC tokens, such as #APT, IMX, #OP , have shown the worst performance among the top 100 cryptocurrencies over the past year.

  • Their average correction after listing is -55% over 6 months.

  • Projects with low VC investment volumes, on the contrary, show better results (for example, Celestia (TIA) grew by 400% after launch).

This explains why major investors are losing interest in such assets: the market has become too good at understanding their mechanics.

Shortening cycles: what's next?

If previously market growth took 3-4 years, this cycle is now evolving rapidly. In the last bull market, BTC broke its historical high 4 years after the previous one, but now only 2.5 years have passed.

Fractal analysis of BTC shows an interesting picture:

  • In 2020, the growth from the bottom to the peak was +300%.

  • In 2024, a similar growth has already been achieved.

  • This means that if the trend continues, BTC could reach $150k faster than many expect.

Conclusion: how to play in this PvP?

  1. Don't believe in 'reliable' VC tokens — the market has already understood their mechanics.

  2. Memes can give X's, but don't become a hostage to FOMO.

  3. #BTC remains the main driver of the market — as long as money flows there, altcoins find it hard to break ahead.

  4. Don't expect this cycle to be like the previous one — it is evolving faster.

"The PvP market is not a survival race, but a chess game. Think two steps ahead."

The market is changing. The main thing is to be able to change along with it.