From Volatility to Victory, Will History Repeat for BTC and ETH? And Strategies for the Smart Trader
September Summary & October Data
In September, we made excellent profits from volatility trades set up during events like NFP and interest rate news. You can find details on how we created these positions and made profits in the articles on my profile. In September, our ETH 2300 Put and 2600 Call contracts profited in the first week when ETH dropped to 2150, and then with subsequent rises up to 2700, the 2600 call contract also yielded profits.
In this article, we'll cover the expected volatility for October, the historical situation of October, important events during the month, and potential position recommendations.
After a September with nice volatility, we've arrived at October, which is typically a good month for crypto. The expected interest rate cut came, and crypto assets closed September in green. Now it's time for "Uptober," which has closed red only twice and green 8 times in the last 10 years. You can see the October performance of BTC and ETH from 2013-2023 in the table below.
We're also entering Q4. As you can see from the table below, Q4 has generally been quite productive during the classic BTC cycle, especially after halving and with monetary expansions during these uptrends.
If you want to make investment purchases, I think we're entering a very good time. There are many bullish scenarios after Trump's election in the American elections, such as financial expansion in the markets, interest rate cuts, and opening of credit taps. It seems logical to start making purchases slowly during the potential decline in the first week or maybe until the middle of October.
October Timeline
While there are important data releases in the US and Europe in October, today we have the Vice Presidential debate, a solar eclipse on October 2, NFP on October 4, and both a Full Moon and ECB's monetary policy and interest rate decision on October 17.
BTC
Bitcoin's monthly average volatility is 30%, weekly is 11%. The monthly implied volatility price range is 44k-82k, while weekly is 58k-73k. BTC's average return in October is around 21%. This would take us to the 76k region. Of course, keep in mind that these are all averages, and movements above or below are highly likely.
BTC opened the week on September 31 with a 3.5% drop. BTC, looking a bit weaker compared to ETH, might get a nice reaction from the 58-59k region. Our monthly pivot level is in the 60k-61k range. The Funding Rate increasing after being around 0 for a long time is also a positive indicator. The highest volume for October 25 contracts is 3.5 million contracts with 70k call options. The Max Pain Price is 62k.
October 1 - BTC October 25 prices. I was going to share this yesterday, but I couldn't due to other commitments. Some of the initial drop I mentioned earlier in the article happened yesterday. Purchases can now start from these levels. If there's a movement to the 58k band, I think additions can be made from there.
ETH
Ethereum's monthly average volatility is 27.5%, weekly is 12%. The monthly implied volatility price range is 1900-3300, while weekly is 2330-3000. ETH's average return in October is around 5%. This corresponds to the 2800 region. Looking at ETHBTC, if we think that ETH is currently holding above support and will start to rise, we might see a more positive ETH that could outperform BTC.
ETH opened the week on September 31 with a 3.5% drop. BTC, looking a bit weaker compared to ETH, might get a nice reaction from the 58-59k region. Our monthly pivot level is in the 60k-61k range. The Funding Rate increasing after being around 0 for a long time is also a positive indicator. The highest volume for October 25 contracts is 3.5 million contracts with 70k call options. The Max Pain Price is 62k.
October 1 - ETH October 25 contracts. With the drop, there's now an opportunity to buy contracts at closer prices more cheaply. I'm adding this image so you can see the difference.
We started October with a 4% drop. Almost half of the weekly volatility occurred on the first day. You can plan your trades for the remaining volatility. Wishing you a pleasant and lucky Uptober!
#OctoberReport #Uptober #OptionsTrading #BTCAnalytics #Summary $BTC $ETH
