Key Takeaways:
The Binance BTC/stablecoin ratio is nearing parity at 1, a level that previously marked major cycle bottoms.
Bitcoin trades near $110,700, holding just above the short-term holder realized price of $107,600.
A drop below $95,000 risks the first 50-week SMA bear signal of this cycle.
Binance Ratio Flashes Rare Signal
A rarely seen Bitcoin market signal is re-emerging on Binance. The Bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio — which measures BTC reserves relative to stablecoin balances — is approaching parity at 1.
This setup has historically coincided with major turning points. The last time the ratio hit parity in March 2025, Bitcoin pulled back to $78,000 before rallying to its $123,000 all-time high. Data from CryptoQuant shows the ratio has only appeared twice since the last bear market, raising speculation that it could once again mark a bottom.
The difference now, however, is that markets are still in consolidation, not deep capitulation. That raises the risk this could be a false bottom signal, hinting at turbulence rather than an immediate rebound.
Stablecoin Reserves Build, Capital on Sidelines
Backing the ratio’s strength, Binance’s ERC-20 stablecoin reserves just hit a record $37.8 billion. Analysts see this as a sign of deep liquidity and fresh capital waiting to re-enter the market.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that BTC is trading at $110,700, just above the short-term holder realized price of $107,600, which remains a key support level.
Other long-term structural metrics remain bullish:
Overall realized price: $52,800
Long-term holder realized price: $35,600
Net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL): 0.53 → profit regime but below euphoric highs
These levels suggest conviction remains strong, though the market is still in a “repair phase” sensitive to profit-taking.
The $95K Line: Bitcoin’s 50-Week SMA Risk
One of Bitcoin’s most reliable trend signals is also in play: the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). Since 2018, every weekly close below this line has triggered prolonged bear markets:
2018: 63% decline
2022: 67% decline
2020 exception: BTC rebounded quickly after the pandemic crash
Bitcoin has held above the 50-SMA since March 2023, but current levels place it near risk. Analysts estimate that a drop to $90K–$95K could mark the first weekly close below the 50-SMA this cycle — a clear bear signal.
Turning Point or False Alarm?
For now, Bitcoin remains in a profit regime with bullish higher timeframes, but the Binance ratio’s reappearance raises questions:
If BTC holds above $107,600 support, the signal could mark another bottom.
If BTC breaks below $95K, history suggests a deep correction could follow.
Whether this rare Binance ratio proves to be a buy-the-dip opportunity or the first sign of a new bear market will depend on how Bitcoin reacts around these key levels in the weeks ahead, according to Cointelegraph.
