The U.S. tariff offensive is hitting two critical markets at once. Copper prices on New York's Comex exchange plunged, while smartphone shipments to the U.S. in Q2 rose just 1%, despite preemptive stockpiling by manufacturers ahead of new tariffs.
🧲 Copper: Uncertainty after 50% Tariff and Chile’s Appeal for Exemption
Following the surprise announcement of a 50% copper import tariff effective August 1, Comex saw a wave of volatility.
Intraday prices dropped as much as 6.2% to $5.4265 per pound, before recovering part of the loss.Chile, which supplies nearly half of U.S. copper imports, experienced immediate market turbulence after Finance Minister Mario Marcel told Radio Duna he would seek an exemption once trade talks resume in Washington.Marcel ruled out retaliatory tariffs, arguing they would only increase costs for Chilean consumers.
U.S. manufacturers, heavily dependent on foreign copper, warn that without exemptions, they'll have no choice but to absorb the additional costs, likely impacting sectors like construction, electronics, and auto manufacturing.
🚢 Stockpiling, Port Rush and Soaring Price Spread
After a national security investigation was launched in February, copper markets braced for tariffs. The result:
U.S. copper prices surged above global levels, pushing traders to rush deliveries to U.S. ports ahead of the deadline.As August 1 approached, a shipping frenzy erupted and sparked a buying rush.On Monday, Comex copper still held a ~27% premium over LME levels.That day, Comex copper closed down 2.9% at $5.6155/lb, while LME benchmark rose 0.2% to $9,793/ton.
📱 Smartphones: Minimal Growth, India Becomes Top Supplier
In the smartphone sector, supply chains are rapidly shifting:
U.S. smartphone shipments grew only 1% YoY in Q2, despite preemptive stockpiling by manufacturers.According to Canalys, U.S.-China trade tensions fueled a rise in India-made phones, offsetting declines elsewhere.Runar Bjorhovde (Canalys): “1% growth despite prior stockpiling signals weak demand and a widening gap between supply and sales.”
Apple previously announced that most iPhones for the U.S. market would be assembled in Indian factories, prompting Trump’s threats of further tariffs if domestic manufacturing targets weren’t met.
Key outcomes:
India became the leading manufacturing hub for U.S.-sold smartphones in Q2 2025, driven by Apple’s accelerated supply chain shift.China’s share of U.S.-bound smartphones fell from 61% to 25%, while India’s volumes surged 240% YoY.iPhone shipments fell 11%, compared to Samsung’s 38% growth.
Huawei Gains Ground at Home
Back in China, Huawei topped the local smartphone market with 12.2 million units sold by June, representing a 15% YoY revenue increase and an 18% market share. This underscores how global supply shifts aren't evenly distributed and local giants can still thrive at home.
Key Takeaways
🔹 Copper: Without exemptions, U.S. industries may face margin pressure and price realignment between Comex and LME.
🔹 Smartphones: India’s rise as a key manufacturing hub accelerates, while China’s share erodes amid ongoing trade uncertainty.
🔹 U.S. demand remains fragile: 1% shipment growth despite stockpiling suggests end-user sales are lagging behind supply.
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