wintermute

The Czech National Bank became the world’s first central bank to buy bitcoin (BTC), and a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) debuted in the US with an impressive trading volume.

Yet what’s dominating headlines is bitcoin’s fall below $100,000 and the crypto market crash. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index has slumped 8.35% in the last 24 hours amid a broader drawdown that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average drop 1.65% tech-heavy Nasdaq lose 2.29% on Thursday.

Spot bitcoin ETFs also saw significant outflows. Investors pulled $869 million on Thursday, the second-largest daily exit on record. Over the past three weeks, spot bitcoin ETFs have lost $2.64 billion.

“We’re seeing steady interest in owning long-dated BTC vol around 80–120k, paired with selective short-term call selling (classic covered call activity),” crypto market maker #Wintermute said. “Positioning leans neutral-to-cautious but shows no appetite to chase big downside.”

When it comes to ether options, Wintermute noted it’s seeing “consistent downside hedging into year-end, and active call selling across the curve, especially 3.5-4.0k.” Traders are positioning for downside.

The sell-off sparked a wave of liquidations, leading to more than $1.11 billion over the last 24 hours, according to #coinglass . It comes as expectations of a U.S. interest-rate cut in December start dropping and concerns about an AI bubble mount.

The #cme ’s FedWatch tool shows the odds of a rate cut this month are close to a toss-up, while traders on Polymarket are still giving a 25 bps cut a slight edge, weighing a 52% chance of that happening. That’s down from 90% late last month.

Adding to the uncertainty, the #whitehouse said that recent key economic indicators, including October inflation, may not be released at all due to delays from the now-ended government shutdown.

“Now that the AI excitement is cooling and more questions are raised around spending, concerns around the K-shaped economy in the US are raised again,” Wintermute wrote.

Despite the milestones, the crypto sector is reaching, with spot ETFs from major issuers being traded and a central bank buying BTC, macro headwinds are keeping prices under pressure. Stay alert!

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$BTC $XRP

A recent report by Wintermute suggests that current crypto market conditions do not favor an immediate altcoin season. Instead, the analysis indicates that bitcoin is likely to outperform altcoins in the near term.

Macro Drivers and Market Rotation
According to the latest Wintermute report, current conditions in the crypto economy—particularly among major assets—suggest that an altcoin season is unlikely in the near term. Instead, the setup favors bitcoin ( BTC) outperforming altcoins.
The report highlights BTC’s price range, which stood about 16% below its all‑time high at the time of writing. Historically, when BTC trades between 10% and 20% from its peak, it outperforms altcoins roughly 54% of the time, with the odds rising to 58% when BTC nears the $100,000 level.
After managing to hold the above $100,000 threshold since late June, BTC finally slipped below this key level in early November, driven by persistent bearish sentiment. Although a recovery rally quickly pushed it back above $100K, the cryptocurrency has since struggled to reclaim the bullish momentum seen in September and October.

This extended period of stagnation and failure to find new highs appears to validate analyses from firms like Wintermute, which have pointed to exhaustion in buying pressure and signaled a challenging outlook for immediate, significant price appreciation.
Still, macro factors may soon shift. News of a U.S. government funding deal between Republicans and eight Democratic senators sparked a BTC rally to $106,000, underscoring how political developments can buoy the market.
Although the recent “dinocoin” rally supports Wintermute’s thesis, the report notes that some blue‑chip altcoins—including HYPE, ENA, and UNI—continue to show relative strength, aided by clearer U.S. regulatory signals and optimism around domestic market reopening. Appetite also remains for DePIN, L2s, and AI tokens, though market breadth is narrow and narratives are fragile.
“For the next leg, majors need to lead. History suggests alts only follow once BTC trades closer to its highs. At ~105K (-16% from ATH), that rotation hasn’t been triggered yet. This looks less like stagnation and more like a turning phase: structure’s cleaner, macro’s supportive, and the market feels ready to build again,” the report states.
Wintermute concludes that the next wave of volatility will likely be driven by policy and politics rather than positioning.
#Binance #wendy #Wintermute $BTC $ETH $BNB

Crypto Market Report – Week 2, November 2025. Source: Wintermute
Quick Summary
Sentiment improves after market positioning is 'reset', selective money returns to risk.
Activation conditions for altcoins: History shows that altcoins only explode when BTC approaches the old peak; currently BTC is still ~mid-teens % away from ATH, so the rotation to alt has not truly activated.
The next volatility factor may come from policy & politics in the US rather than from market positioning.