📊 Wintermute's Latest Report: Institutional Buying Slows, Crypto Market Diverges from US Stocks
US stocks are partying while crypto is bleeding. The latest report from market maker Wintermute shows a clear divergence between the crypto market and the equity market. Here are the core highlights:
🚨 Core Status: US stocks hitting new highs, crypto feeling the pain
Market Performance: As of May 25, BTC is around $76,600 (down 1.5% weekly), ETH is about $2,140 (down 1.7% weekly). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has reached an all-time high during the same period.
Major Withdrawal: BTC spot ETFs saw outflows of approximately $1.26 billion in just one week, with total outflows exceeding $2 billion over two weeks. The institutional buying that pushed BTC from $70k to $80k is now signaling a significant retreat.
Ethereum Weakness: The ETH/BTC ratio has hit a 10-month low, down 35% from the August peak.
🌐 Macro and AI: Have Expectations Been Overextended?
Macro Data Disappoints: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has dropped to a historical low of 44.8, while one-year inflation expectations have unexpectedly risen to 4.8%, increasing stagflation concerns.
AI Trading Fizzles: Nvidia's Q1 revenue rose 85% year-on-year, with Q2 guidance reaching $91 billion, data that is explosive, yet post-market stock prices showed little movement, indicating that the market has fully priced in the AI narrative.
📈 Market Outlook: Where to Look for Short-Term Lifelines?
Wintermute points out that the direction of the short-term market entirely depends on whether institutional funds return. Technically, keep an eye on the following two ranges:
Bullish Defense Zone ($75,000–$76,000): This is the current key support level. If it stabilizes here, the market may gather momentum to retest the $80,000 mark.
Bear Trap ($70,000–$72,000): If the above support fails, a downward channel will quickly open up, and prices may rapidly retest this range.
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