Nividia

Weekly Market Forecast
1 step forward, 2 steps back…. The last week was a weird one and, once again, all about tariffs, tariffs, tariffs (are you also sick of hearing that word, hahaha?)... apart from that we saw some better than expected corporate earnings with artificial intelligence (AI) giant #Nividia delivering solid results, despite the overhang from trade restrictions in China. Nonetheless, despite the ongoing uncertainty, the #S&P500 is up about 6% for the month of May and is slightly positive this year. Historically, a strong May has boded well for the forward 12-month market performance.
Despite good overall news from the tech sector #bitcoin was not able to stay above the very important support area around 107,000 USD… 
每周市场预测
进一步退两步......上周是奇怪的一周，再次围绕关税、关税、关税展开（你是否也厌倦了听到这个词，哈哈哈？）......除此之外，我们看到了一些超出预期的企业盈利，人工智能（AI）巨头#英伟达 （Nvidia）交出了稳健的业绩，尽管面临中国贸易限制的阴霾。尽管如此，尽管持续存在不确定性，标普500指数在5月份上涨了约6%，今年略有上涨。从历史上看，强劲的5月份表现对未来12个月的市场表现来说是个好兆头。
尽管科技板块总体消息良好，#比特币 仍未能保持在10.7万美元这一非常重要的支撑区域之上......

2, equally possible scenarios will unfold from here… we form a new higher low around this area and the markets will continue upwards or we will see the same scenario like in 2021 when Bitcoin formed a double top at 69,000 USD to then switch into bear market mode. Since I do not think the bull market is over yet I lean towards the more positive scenario. However, at this point it is a bit like rolling a dice. 
从这里开始，两种同样可能的情况将会展开......我们在这个区域形成一个新的更高低点，市场将继续上涨，或者我们将看到与2021年相同的情况，当时比特币在69,000美元形成双顶，然后进入熊市模式。由于我认为牛市尚未结束，我倾向于更积极的情况。然而，此时这有点像掷骰子。

There is still time and space to reach the upper bands of the logarithmic regression… until end of October or, if you are more following Giovannis Power Law analysis of Bitcoin until end of January 2026 with a target of about 200,000 USD.
仍有时间和空间达到对数回归的上轨......直到10月底，或者，如果你更关注乔瓦尼对比特币的幂律分析，则到2026年1月底，目标价约为20万美元。

Interesting sidenote: According to the power law the fair valuation of Bitcoin currently is around 96,000 USD….so we are a bit overvalued right now.
有趣的旁注：根据幂律，比特币目前的公允估值约为96,000美元......所以我们现在有点被高估了。
What am I currently working on?
As many of you noticed I am not very active at the moment when it comes to manual trading. As @assistanthuan has become a very capable trading I leave most of the manual trading now to her. You frequently see her sharing the amazing profits she manages to make with the MEI & G-Force indicators. I am, at the moment, concentrating on developing and back testing an automated, trend following strategy where all my findings, indicators and knowledge will be combined into a bot that trades them automatically.
I know many of you are waiting for this and I hope you understand that the implementation of this takes a lot of time due to rigorous backtesting and me, as always, risking my own money first. However, the effort should be worth it as I am aiming to offer you a solution that you normally have no access to as retail traders… an institutional grade trading bot that delivers steady results. 
I want to give you a little sneak peak on what to expect:
我目前在做什么？
正如你们许多人注意到的，我目前在手动交易方面不太活跃。由于 @assistanthuan 已经成为一个非常有能力的交易者，我现在将大部分手动交易交给她。你们经常看到她分享用MEI和G-Force指标取得的惊人利润。我目前专注于开发和回测一个自动化的趋势跟踪策略，我所有的发现、指标和知识将被整合到一个自动交易的机器人中。
我知道你们中的许多人在等待这个，我希望你们理解，由于严格的回测以及我一如既往地首先拿自己的钱冒险，这个实施过程需要很长时间。然而，这种努力应该是值得的，因为我的目标是为你们提供一个作为散户交易者通常无法获得的解决方案......一个提供稳定结果的机构级交易机器人。
我想给你们一个关于预期内容的小小预览：

Important: These results are not optimized, meaning this is not the result of curve fitting to show you results that are not repeatable. This is the reality of how my strategy would have performed over the course of the last 3 months including trading fees and spread. 
Especially the Sharpe Ratio of 5.95 is exceptional, within the worldwide top 1 % of trading strategies and something normal retail traders would never have access to. Also important: These results are from 126 days of trading and done without any leverage…. On each trade only the account balance was invested, so technically a leverage of 1:1 was used.
The annualized return is at 134.9 % and compared to a Bitcoin buy and hold strategy or the results of other institutional players is also exceptional:
重要提示：这些结果没有经过优化，意味着这不是曲线拟合的结果来向你们展示不可重复的结果。这是我的策略在过去3个月中表现的真实情况，包括交易费用和点差。
特别是5.95的夏普比率是非常出色的，在全球交易策略中排名前1%，这是普通散户交易者永远无法获得的。同样重要的是：这些结果来自126天的交易，且没有使用任何杠杆......每笔交易只投入账户余额，所以技术上使用的是1:1的杠杆。
年化收益率为134.9%，与比特币买入持有策略或其他机构投资者的结果相比也是非常出色的：

This is how a 10,000 USD account would have developed and also a graphical visualization of the drawdowns:
这是一个10,000美元账户的发展情况，以及回撤的图形化展示：

Trading this strategy with leverage of 3,5 or 10 x would have enhanced the returns further, but of course also made the drawdowns larger… a leverage of 5x resulted, for example, in a return of 122,5 % for 126 days of trading with a drawdown of 27.9 %.... I think this illustrates also very well why I am always telling you to not trade with high leverage hahaha
使用3倍、5倍或10倍杠杆交易这一策略本可以进一步提高收益，但当然也会使回撤更大......例如，5倍杠杆在126天的交易中产生了122.5%的收益，回撤为27.9%......我认为这也很好地说明了为什么我总是告诉你们不要用高杠杆交易，哈哈哈
What are the next steps?
The automation of the strategy is very complex, as not only the signals of the MEI and G-Force are utilized but a lot of additional data also feeds into the signal and risk management logic. There currently is no ready made bot framework solution out there that can do that, so I will start developing my own solution that comes with a nice frontend that ultimately you guys can also use to “plug into the strategy” via API. So be patient and continue to develop your manual trading skills by trading with the MEI & G-Force indicators… the wait will be worth it, I promise you.
Have a good start into the next week!
下一步是什么？
策略的自动化非常复杂，因为不仅利用了MEI和G-Force的信号，还有大量额外数据也输入到信号和风险管理逻辑中。目前市面上没有现成的机器人框架解决方案可以做到这一点，所以我将开始开发自己的解决方案，配备一个漂亮的前端界面，最终你们也可以通过API"接入这个策略"。所以请耐心等待，继续通过使用MEI和G-Force指标来发展你们的手动交易技能......这个等待将是值得的，我向你们保证。
祝你们下周有个好的开始！